Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, not too long ago declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that might final till the third quarter of 2026.
he’s not alone. Bitwise’s Matt Hogan and a rising refrain of voices have been utilizing the label “bear” extra freely than ever since early 2023.
Nonetheless, those self same analysts typically use construction to hedge. Many monetary establishments proceed to take care of or add to their publicity whereas acknowledging the change in authorities.
This raises a definitional drawback. If a bear market now not means capitulation or exit, what does it imply?
If the well-known four-year cycle is gone, as VanEck, K33 Analysis, and 21Shares every declare of their latest stories, how lengthy will the bear market final if the lunar calendar now not applies?
What constitutes a bear market
The normal monetary definition of a bear market is a place to begin.
The U.S. Securities and Trade Fee defines a bear market as a decline of 20% or extra in a broad index over at the very least two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold a couple of months in the past.
From a peak of over $126,000 in early October 2025, BTC has fallen by about 41% to about $74,000 as of February 3. In keeping with headline requirements, the case is solved.
Nonetheless, Coinbase Institutional’s analysis clearly states that the 20% threshold is “considerably arbitrary” and does not likely apply to cryptocurrencies, which might expertise 20% swings with out a true regime change.
The truth is, analysts make the most of a dashboard that consists of three components: value traits, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
The value pattern is the obvious. CryptoQuant depends closely on the 365-day transferring common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin is at the moment buying and selling beneath that stage, at round $101,448. CryptoQuant’s bull rating index, which comprehensively measures on-chain well being, scored 20 factors out of 100, which is described as extraordinarily bearish territory.
Coinbase makes use of a 200-day transferring common to establish bear markets in its historic cycle evaluation, and Bitcoin continues to stay beneath that threshold.
Positioning and derivatives present a second sign. Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain report paperwork situations that enhance draw back sensitivity, together with rotation for draw back safety, a bearish bias within the choices market, and a seller gamma beneath zero.
Markets act defensively when merchants pay a premium to hedge towards additional declines quite than to seize upside.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that giant holders have bought about $29 billion of Bitcoin since October. Roughly $440 million has been drained from publicly traded digital asset merchandise for the reason that starting of the yr.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as combining declining stablecoin liquidity with weak demand, typical components of a bear market.
The most recent world investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, performed from December 10, 2025 to January 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of establishments say the market is at the moment in a bearish section. This outcome was up from simply 2% within the earlier survey.
Nonetheless, the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments have held or elevated their net-long publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is a trademark of the 2026 bear market. It’s not about capitulation, however about recognizing the regime whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is changing into much less about who’s operating away and extra about who remains to be shopping for, regardless that market sentiment stays dire.
When will this bear market finish?
To outline the tip of a bear market, we have to be clear about what we imply by “finish.”
Probably the most rigorous strategy treats this as a regime change quite than a sentiment. Analysts establish three sensible triggers: a reversal of traits, a reversal of demand, and a normalization of threat urge for food.
A pattern restoration happens when Bitcoin recovers and maintains its long-term transferring common, resembling 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Modulations in demand imply exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise transfer from subdued or damaging inflows to sustained inflows, slowing distributions to giant holders.
Normalization of threat urge for food signifies that choices bias returns to a balanced stage, decreasing the demand for draw back safety and persistently constructing leverage.
The forward-looking situations are categorized into three time durations, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
The primary situation is a traditional crypto winter that lasts till mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno recognized deeper potential paths of $70,000 in three to 6 months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026. This situation assumes that demand stays weak, flows stay damaging, and Bitcoin fails in repeated makes an attempt to regain its transferring common. Bear market rallies happen, however they do not final.
The second situation is a brief, shallow bear market lasting 3-6 months, characterised by unstable, range-bound value actions, earlier than situations enhance within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares clearly expects a constructive state of affairs within the medium time period and a unstable interval of 3-6 months as whale gross sales dry up by mid-2026.
On this framework, bear markets are extra a matter of time than depth. In different phrases, the higher restrict is restricted till demand reverses, however the decrease restrict is maintained.
The third situation treats bear markets as liquidity wave occasions quite than calendar-based cycles.
No matter what the halving clock says, the bear market will finish when demand and liquidity speed up once more. This maps on to CryptoQuant’s demand-driven framework and avoids determinism attributable to half-lives. We acknowledge that the previous playbook could now not apply.
| situation | horizon | what’s it seems to be like | Key triggers to watch | what would you do disable that |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| traditional winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | A failed assembly. deeper retest | Steady assortment failures 200D/365D;weak present; Sustainable draw back hedge | Restoration + Keep Above MA and Movement turns constructive sustainably |
| brief and shallow bear (CoinShares Cross) | 3-6 months | Vary restricted chop. cap dealing with upwards | Stabilization of ETP flows. Slowdown/depletion of whale gross sales | Breakdown beneath key assist zones attributable to growing liquidation stress |
| Liquidity wave system (after 4 yr cycle) | variable | Exit when liquidity and demand adjustments, not on a calendar | International liquidity proxy, actual yield, stablecoin liquidity, demand hedging | Liquidity improves, however BTC nonetheless can not get well lengthy MA (suggesting structural weak spot) |
Is that this bear market smaller than earlier cycles?
The present drawdown of round 40% is already small in comparison with the everyday 70%+ crypto winters of earlier cycles.
Nonetheless, the draw back situations by a number of analysts are concentrated round $55,000 to $60,000, suggesting that if realized, the whole drawdown will strategy the mid-50% vary.
Whereas that is nonetheless beneath historic extremes, it’s important sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any normal.
The market can also be more and more polarized. Whereas Bitcoin retains its structural management, the remainder of the cryptocurrency market is performing a lot worse.
Coinbase and Glassnode stories spotlight this by way of dominance indicators and defensive positioning actions. The market in 2026 shall be Ok-shaped, and a “bear market” may have an uneven influence on asset lessons.
The four-year cycle is over, however what’s going to exchange it?
Van Eck argued that in 2025, the four-year cycle will break down, making the previous technique much less dependable.
K33 Analysis has launched a report entitled “The four-year cycle is useless, lengthy stay the King” which reveals the rationale for the change of presidency.
21Shares explains that this cycle is evolving and will lengthen to 5 years as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional investor participation deepens.
The choice to the four-year clock is the liquidity and stream clock. This contains actual yields, world liquidity impulses, trade traded fund and trade traded product flows, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares clearly frames Bitcoin’s latest turmoil by way of the connection between valuable metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode spotlight defensive posture in derivatives as a real-time posture indicator.
What a bear market interval means is that bear markets change into extra frequent however much less extreme. If institutional flows present a decrease certain, markets could expertise extra frequent regime contractions quite than survival winters.
The rally could fail till demand and liquidity enhance, however the underlying construction may forestall the sort of multi-year capitulation that characterised previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. Bear markets can last more in calendar time, however they do much less injury in share phrases. Or it could finish sooner if demand adjustments earlier than the previous cycle logic predicts.
In any case, the clock that dominated Bitcoin for a decade now not guidelines Bitcoin.
Checklists are extra essential than calendars
In 2026, whether or not there shall be a bear market is not going to be a single metric, however a guidelines.
Development breaks, demand hedging, demand and liquidity rollovers all level in the identical course. Bitcoin is in a bear market in most essential frameworks.
When it ends is determined by the timing of the demand cycle quite than the halving calendar. CoinShares expects a pointy decline in 3-6 months. We consider that CryptoQuant may attain additional lows within the second half of this yr.
If the administration vacillates with out a clear decision, each side could find yourself being proper at completely different instances.
Though the four-year cycle is over, the query of when this bear market will finish stays unanswered. It ends when Bitcoin regains its long-term transferring common, when institutional flows flip constructive, and when the choices market stops pricing for defense.
Till then, the market is able to restrict the upside, and persistence is required. Even when institutional traders say it is bearish and preserve shopping for.
