Robinhood inventory (NASDAQ: HOOD) plummeted greater than 10% on Monday, marking the corporate’s worst efficiency within the S&P 500 index as a ferocious slide within the crypto market mixed with a decline in exercise within the firm’s prediction market.
The securities big, which soared 188% in 2025, is now down 40% from its October excessive of $153, leaving buyers going through the fact that Robinhood’s fortunes rise and fall primarily based on particular person buying and selling urge for food and the worth of cryptocurrencies.
The decline prolonged pre-market weak spot right into a deep session decline, with buying and selling quantity 40% above common as sellers overwhelmed bids.
Bitcoin’s weekend selloff brought on cascading losses throughout retail buying and selling platforms.
The digital asset plummeted from $83,800 on Friday to a nine-month low of $74,570, wiping out greater than $200 billion in cryptocurrency market worth and forcing the liquidation of $2 billion throughout leveraged positions.
The bloodshed hit Robin Hood’s pockets.
In 2025, cryptocurrency buying and selling income grew 200% per quarter to $268 million, making it the platform’s quickest rising income driver and accounting for about 40% of complete buying and selling income.
Robinhood Inventory: Cryptocurrency Stress and Seasonal Forecast – Market Decline
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Robinhood is extraordinarily delicate to crypto vulnerabilities.
With a beta of two.45, which means the share value is 2.5 occasions extra unstable than the broader market, HOOD is basically a leveraged guess on retail danger urge for food fairly than the energy of the underlying enterprise.
Piper Sandler maintains an “obese” ranking with a $155 value goal, however factors to a few short-term headwinds: weak crypto buying and selling quantity and a decline in projected market returns as a result of finish of the NFL season.
The prediction market angle is essential.
Robinhood launched soccer contract buying and selling in August 2025 and has shortly change into a fast-growing phase.
CEO Vlad Tenev instructed buyers the enterprise was “rising quickly” with 2.5 billion contracts traded in October alone. However the soccer season ends in February.
Robinhood is counting on the NBA and MLB to fill the hole, however traditionally seasonal income gaps trigger valuations for fintech shares to reset.
Valuation collapses because of revenue taking
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The broader context is necessary. After a 188% rally in 2025, it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 occasions and a price-to-sales a number of of 23 occasions, each effectively above historic averages.
Many institutional buyers are additionally taking earnings.
With out short-term catalysts, shares are prone to proceed promoting.
Buying and selling volumes fell 37% for shares, 28% for choices and 12% for cryptocurrencies, in response to November working information.
Robinhood’s buyer acquisition fee has slowed, and a cease-and-desist order from Connecticut regulators on unlicensed playing phrases has elevated headline danger.
Robinhood will launch its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings after the market closes on February tenth, and CEO Vlad Tenev will host a video name at 5pm ET.
Analysts count on gross sales to be $1.34 billion, up 32% year-over-year, however EPS to be $0.63, down 38% year-over-year, because of hovering bills.
Additional declines are anticipated if steerage disappoints or fails to handle crypto volatility dangers. Help is close to $85. Resistance is $105.
