Polymarket merchants estimate the possibility that China will legalize the acquisition of Bitcoin inside the nation to be round 5%.
At first look, this quantity appears unfavorable. Nonetheless, the query arises whether or not the Chinese language authorities will explicitly enable its residents to change RMB for Bitcoin inside mainland China by the tip of 2026.
This distinction is necessary as a result of the regulatory construction lately accomplished by the Chinese language authorities factors in the other way.
Prediction markets ask binary questions. Will the Individuals’s Republic of China announce that by December 31, 2026, Chinese language residents will have the ability to legally buy Bitcoin with Renminbi inside China?
This decision hinges on the announcement itself, not its implementation. Hong Kong sandboxes, offshore merchandise, and institutional workarounds are excluded. It is a check of land banking rails and authorized buying channels, the very infrastructure that China has spent the final yr systematically dismantling.
The ban has been additional strengthened
In February 2026, Chinese language regulators issued a complete joint notification that successfully codified “Ban 2.0.” This doc reaffirms that digital foreign money enterprise actions quantity to unlawful monetary actions and that digital currencies wouldn’t have the standing of authorized tender.
Nonetheless, it goes past the September 2021 framework it replaces and particularly targets the naming and registration of entities that assist advertising and marketing, transportation facilitation, fee settlement, and even cryptocurrency actions.
The discover singles out stablecoins as a precedence enforcement space, bans unauthorized offshore issuance of renminbi-pegged stablecoins, and frames stablecoins as a car for anti-money laundering gaps, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border fund transfers.
Civil deterrence has additionally been launched. Investing in digital currencies and associated merchandise violates “public order and morals” and such transactions are legally void and impose private losses on buyers.
This was not a marketing campaign memo. The 2021 Notification has been repealed and established as a brand new authorized normal. For these betting on a reversal by the tip of the yr, the timeline will look grim.
| coverage layer | What’s it (plain English) | Does this fulfill the polymarket “YES”? | Scenario on the mainland (framework after February 2026) | Hong Kong’s “strain valve”? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home retail buy (RMB → BTC) | Extraordinary individuals can legally change RMB into Bitcoin Inside mainland China (through authorized apps/exchanges/OTC). | sure | Prohibited | no — Hong Kong doesn’t change the legality of onshore RMB → BTC purchases on the mainland. |
| Change/buying and selling venue (home license) | Chinese language licensed cryptocurrency exchanges and exchanges function legally and might present companies to mainland residents. | no | Prohibited/focused | sure — Hong Kong can receive VASP/venue licenses, however this stays offshore and doesn’t legalize venues on the mainland. |
| Banking rail (renminbi deposit/settlement) | Banks/fee corporations can present RMB accounts, deposits and withdrawals, and settlement/clearing for digital currency-related transactions. | No (until you explicitly allow onshore authorized RMB → BTC purchases) | Goal/Prohibition (Concentrate on rails and facilitation) | partial — Hong Kong Financial institution Rail can assist licensed Hong Kong actions. Not reopening the RMB rail for mainland digital foreign money transactions. |
| Storage/brokerage merchandise | Regulated entities can retailer BTC for his or her prospects or present brokered BTC publicity (funds, structured notes, wrappers). | no | Prohibited (It is going to be handled as “digital foreign money associated merchandise and actions”) | sure — Hong Kong can host regulated merchandise (ETFs/custody and many others.) inside a contained jurisdiction. |
| Legality of mining | Mining is authorized/regulated (licenses, taxes, entry to the facility grid), not prohibited/penalized. | no | Prohibited (No lodging accessible. Enforcement might differ by area) | no — Hong Kong just isn’t a mining middle. Mining just isn’t legalized on the mainland. |
| Hong Kong Entry (ETF/Stablecoin) | Publicity through the Hong Kong Spot Crypto ETF. Stablecoin primarily based on Hong Kong license. Tokenization pilot primarily based on Hong Kong rules. | no (Explicitly excluded by the “inside China” framework of the market) | not relevant To mainland legality. Mainland restrictions nonetheless apply | sure — ETF + stablecoin license + supervised pilot will function an offshore experiment with out mainland liberalization. |
| Offshore institutional workarounds | Offshore exchanges/commodities/establishments provide BTC publicity. Mainland customers entry through VPN/OTC/cross-border channels. | no | Goal/Prohibition (Particularly solicitation/advertising and marketing/transport facilitation and cross-border capital move vectors) | partial — Hong Kong can settle for merchandise, however “mainland entry” stays politically restricted and doesn’t meet land-based buying standards. |
Hong Kong as a management experiment
The Chinese language authorities’s strategy to cryptocurrencies turns into clearer when considered via the lens of Hong Kong’s position as a regulatory laboratory.
In April 2024, Hong Kong launched Asia’s first Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF, marketed explicitly as a product for jurisdictions the place mainland buying and selling stays prohibited.
The town’s stablecoin licensing framework took impact in August 2025, however as of early 2026, the Hong Kong Financial Authority’s register confirmed zero license issuers.
The primary batch is predicted in March 2026, however regulators have instructed that quantity shall be “very small”.
Even ocean experiments face political constraints. The Monetary Instances reported that Chinese language tech giants together with Ant Group and Jingtocom have canceled plans for a Hong Kong stablecoin following the intervention of the Chinese language authorities.
The message: Innovation can happen in managed environments, however provided that central oversight is enhanced quite than circumvented.
This construction permits the Chinese language authorities to take care of an impermeable barrier to home renminbi-to-bitcoin change whereas permitting using contained pilots corresponding to ETFs, tokenization frameworks, and licensed stablecoins.
Hong Kong acts as a strain valve and doesn’t foretell mainland coverage.
The tokenization paradox
China’s February 2026 regulatory tightening additionally makes it clear that digital belongings shall be allowed the place they’re allowed: inside closely monitored and permitted tokenization lanes.
On February 6, the China Securities Regulatory Fee strengthened its supervision of offshore tokenized asset-backed securities tied to onshore belongings, calling for stronger filings, disclosures, and cross-border coordination.
On the identical day, a discover from the Individuals’s Financial institution of China mixed a crackdown on cryptocurrencies with language stating that tokenized merchandise backed by home belongings can be topic to strict scrutiny.
Three days later, Reuters framed the transfer to determine a authorized pathway for offshore issuance of tokens backed by mainland belongings, despite the fact that real-world asset issuance inside the nation stays prohibited.
This interpretation is according to the broader stance of the Chinese language authorities. Digital finance is suitable whether it is auditable, supervised by the state, and goes via authorised entities. There aren’t any unregulated transactions.
McKinsey predicts that by 2030, the market capitalization of tokenized belongings shall be round $2 trillion, with a bullish case excluding “cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin” at round $4 trillion.
As a result of tokenization is linked to state surveillance and management infrastructure, the Chinese language authorities can actively promote tokenization and conduct anti-Bitcoin transactions on the identical time.
One knowledge level complicates the tightening story. Based on Hashrate Index, China’s share of Bitcoin mining will recuperate to round 14% by October 2025, with some business estimates placing it between 15% and 20% of world mining.
This resurgence has occurred regardless of a mining ban, suggesting gaps in enforcement on the native stage.
Nonetheless, this transfer displays fluctuations in compliance quite than a reversal of coverage. Native tolerance for underground mining has not translated into authorized readability on the nationwide stage, and the Chinese language authorities’s February 2026 notification exhibits no consideration for mining actions.
Precise value at odds of 5%
Polymarket’s present pricing displays a sequence of low-probability situations.
Essentially the most believable path to a “sure” decision entails a slender land check. It’s a state-supervised platform in a free commerce zone that enables restricted RMB to Bitcoin purchases, topic to strict capital caps and buyer visibility controls.
Such experiments would require clear licensing pathways, entry to banking companies, and a shift away from “illicit monetary actions.”
There may be nothing within the present regulatory setting to recommend motion in direction of that consequence. The February 2026 framework reverses the Overton framework, treating crypto companies not as a grey space that needs to be tolerated, however as criminality that needs to be eradicated.
A second state of affairs, oblique Bitcoin publicity via extremely regulated merchandise, may achieve traction, corresponding to mainland buyers accessing Hong Kong crypto ETFs via authorised channels.
Nonetheless, this doesn’t meet the decision requirements for polymarkets. This criterion is topic to authorized onshore RMB to Bitcoin purchases.
Sovereign Lens and Indicators Value Noting
Beijing’s hardline stance can also be according to broader issues about financial sovereignty.
In 2025, the Financial institution for Worldwide Settlements famous that greater than 99% of stablecoins are denominated in US {dollars}, elevating issues about stealth dollarization and circumvention of capital controls, the very vulnerabilities that Chinese language regulators cite when justifying crypto rules.
For a authorities that believes capital controls are important to macroeconomic stability, permitting unregulated renminbi to bitcoin change is tantamount to opening a everlasting leak within the dam.
The political price of such a reversal would appear prohibitive, particularly within the absence of a disaster that forces Beijing’s hand.
If the chances are to maneuver meaningfully, sure triggers will happen previous to the change. A proper assertion from the State Council or the Individuals’s Financial institution of China establishing authorized channels for licensed exchanges and brokers to function within the nation can be the clearest sign.
One other risk can be banking permission to permit crypto platform transactions to be settled with RMB accounts. A change within the wording of the official notification from “unlawful monetary exercise” to “regulated exercise” would point out a conceptual restructuring.
The announcement of a free commerce zone that explicitly permits the acquisition of RMB with Bitcoin inside a chosen geographic space may meet polymarket fee standards with out requiring nationwide legalization. None of those alerts are current.
The regulatory trajectory from late 2025 onwards is unidirectional with tighter controls, clearer prohibitions, and clearer civil and prison deterrence.
actual guess
Polymarket merchants haven’t priced in whether or not China will “settle for cryptocurrencies” or “change into blockchain pleasant.” They’re pricing within the risk that inside a yr, the Chinese language authorities will withdraw its newly strengthened coverage framework, permitting residents to change nationwide foreign money for belongings the federal government deems unlawful, and achieve this with none political or financial catalyst.
As a substitute, the Chinese language authorities has created a bifurcated system. Which means digital finance allowed below state supervision and a continued ban on decentralized transactions.
Hong Kong can host the experiment. Tokenization can proceed on managed rails. Stablecoins will be licensed below strict situations. Nonetheless, home RMB-to-Bitcoin purchases stay at odds with the regulatory logic that China has tightened its authorized framework for by 2025 and early 2026.
Structure just isn’t ambiguous. It’s express, codified, and expansive. Betting on a reversal by December 2026 just isn’t solely betting on present coverage, but additionally on the framework China has simply completed constructing.
