scoop: Ending February within the crimson would put Bitcoin on tempo for a fifth consecutive month of declines, marking its longest shedding streak since 2018, whereas spot ETF flows proceed to show unfavorable, reinforcing the brand new actuality that post-ETF BTC is buying and selling like an rate of interest and danger product. Except it flips in March and regains $80,000, it’ll rival the worst interval in historical past.
Bitcoin has closed decrease in every of the previous 4 months, turning unfavorable mid-month in February, marking the fifth straight month of declines.
This outcome marks Bitcoin’s longest month-to-month shedding streak in six years, however it’s now seen extra as a macro stress take a look at of the post-ETF market construction than chart trivia.
In line with the information, costs fell from October 2025 to January 2026, with the biggest loss in November.
It began February round $78,626 and was buying and selling within the low $60,000s across the center of the month.
On the time of writing this text. Bitcoin is buying and selling at round $68,800, about 44-45% under its October excessive of $126,000 and down 12.6% for the month.
The all-time document for month-to-month drawdowns was the six months from January 2017 to August 2018. If March additionally ends unfavorable, Bitcoin will match that document.
Rate of interest forecast and ETF flows
This drawdown coincides with a repricing of rate of interest expectations, so danger belongings stay delicate to gradual adjustments of their “secular upward trajectory,” in keeping with statistics from Ned Davis Analysis cited by Enterprise Insider.
Federal funds futures proceed to be tilted towards maintain till March 2026, with odds weighted towards no change.
A extra prudent coverage stance tends to boost buying and selling hurdles like period, and Bitcoin’s latest correlation profile has led to Bitcoin buying and selling as a macro beta illustration in lots of portfolios, particularly when fairness volatility will increase.
That macro channel is now powered by the ETF wrapper itself.
Current spot buying and selling periods for Bitcoin ETFs have been skewed unfavorable, with internet outflows of roughly $2 billion over the previous three weeks and whole each day outflows within the a whole bunch of hundreds of thousands of {dollars}.
On this regime, if redemptions and danger parity-style de-risking proceed to place strain on the tape, the decline is prone to proceed with no crypto-specific catalyst.
Outline key ranges primarily based on on-chain prices
Glassnode’s newest on-chain work frames the decline as a fierce competitors between overhead provide and cost-based assist.
The agency stated the true market common close to $80,200 has acted as an overhead resistance stage, and the realized value close to $55,800 has traditionally served as a verifiable “re-engagement” space throughout deeper resets.
Glassnode maps a dense cost-based zone between these poles, round $66,900 to $70,600. This zone serves as a short-term benchmark for holders to find out whether or not to defend their collective entry level or give up to a pocket of low liquidity.
These ranges are in step with these already famous by different market commentators, making them a straightforward ahead hall for the following 1-3 months.
I’ve advised a number of instances previously that the market backside for this cycle is round $49,000, and the earlier Bitcoin reaches that stage, the extra doubtless it’s to step by step rise again to the 2028 halving.
Barron’s famous that the $55,000 to $60,000 space could possibly be thought-about a volatility zone, with the 200-day transferring common converging round $58,000, and the estimated common buy value round $56,000 as a possible anchor if the sell-off accelerates.
In different phrases, the market is debating whether or not to fall from round $68,800 again to the “common” space of $80,200 or in the direction of the realized value space of $55,800.
Every transfer represents a swing within the low teenagers.
| Cross (subsequent 4-12 weeks) | what wants to vary | Degree to deal with (supply) | vary framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization and vary buying and selling | Outflows are gradual, macros don’t tighten additional, cost-based consumers defend entries | Assist from $66,900 to $70,600. ~$80,200 overhead (Glassnode) | ~$65,000-$82,000 (glass node) |
| deeper deleveraging | Collapse of value band, continuation of risk-off, growth of compelled promoting | $60,000 retest, then realized value of roughly $55,800 (Glassnode). $55,000-$60,000 Zone (Barons) | ~$55,000 to $60,000 (together with decrease stress tails mentioned under) |
| accumulate | Macro traits ease, inflows return, and costs return to oblique provide. | ~$80,200 again (Glassnode) | ~$80,000–$95,000+ (stage dependent) |
The circulating low tails are additionally explicitly linked to macros.
Ned Davis Analysis, through Enterprise Insider, makes use of historic bear market averages (roughly 225 days of roughly 84% drawdown) to assemble a “crypto winter” stress case that, if historical past is something to go by, would see Bitcoin close to $31,000.
One other report from Enterprise Insider cited a Zacks strategist outlining a path to $40,000 in three to 6 months and tying that situation to the liquidity scenario and former winter interval.
These usually are not consensus objectives, however function boundary markers to indicate how far macro-driven danger aversion can attain when flows and positioning are one-sided.
For the remainder of February, the calendar itself is the set off.
A crimson month-to-month shut would formally verify a fifth consecutive month of declines and are available at a time when the persistence of ETF flows, on-chain cost-based defenses, and federal funds pricing all point out that Bitcoin buying and selling is a fee and danger instrument somewhat than a separate, singular market.
