Chase Guo, former head of enterprise improvement at Binance, made a daring prediction: Bitcoin will attain an all-time excessive ($ATH) in 2026, however not for the explanations most market contributors anticipate.
The previous Binance BD claimed in a latest interview that Bitcoin’s subsequent large breakout is not going to be primarily pushed by halving, retail euphoria, or macroeconomic tailwinds.
Liquidity Engineering — Not the Hype — May Drive Bitcoin’s 2026 Breakout
As a substitute, he believes the catalyst will come from the liquidity place and structural dynamics of the crypto market itself.
“The explanation will shock individuals,” Guo mentioned, suggesting that market mechanisms, somewhat than the persuasiveness of the story, would play a decisive function.
In response to former executives, crypto asset pricing is managed by three dominant forces:
- liquidity
- Consideration, and
- Token holder construction (also known as “chip construction”).
He argued that these elements decide worth traits over short- to medium-term cycles starting from seven days to 3 months.
On this framework, long-term fundamentals usually take a backseat. As a substitute, capital inflows and outflows, social media momentum, and the distribution of tokens amongst holders form volatility and development course.
Bitcoin is commonly seen as a long-term retailer of worth, however former Binance officers say $BTC It stays closely influenced by short-term liquidity flows and leveraged positioning.
The purpose is consensus
A key component of his 2026 predictions focuses on how main corporations work together with market consensus. If the vast majority of merchants revolve round a bullish or bearish narrative, liquidity is commonly concentrated round predictable worth ranges.
In response to the previous BD, this creates a chance for classy market contributors to control volatility.
“When a consensus kinds, it turns into a goal,” he implied, pointing to historic episodes the place crowded positioning led to speedy liquidations and sharp worth reversals earlier than new traits emerged.
In his opinion, the subsequent Bitcoin can be $ATH From such a liquidity squeeze state of affairs, positioning, spinoff publicity, and capital rotation may work collectively to pressure worth discovery past historic highs.
Market cap context
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is at present a fraction of gold’s, leaving room for enlargement if world liquidity circumstances stay supportive.
He advised that even a small turnover of institutional or sovereign capital may have a big influence on the worth degree, given the next circumstances: $BTCThe availability of is comparatively mounted.
However consultants warn that the trail to new highs is prone to be unstable and counterintuitive. Reasonably than a clean, narrative-driven rally, he expects sharp swings geared toward shaking off overleveraged merchants earlier than a sustained breakout.
Structural somewhat than emotional gatherings
Not like earlier cycles fueled by retail enthusiasm, meme-driven hypothesis, or halving hype, the anticipated 2026 rally could be attributed to structural liquidity dynamics constructed into crypto’s maturing market infrastructure.
If Mr. Guo’s thesis is confirmed appropriate, what occurs subsequent? $ATH This isn’t only a story of religion in digital gold. Reasonably, it will likely be an illustration of how liquidity engineering and consensus positioning form trendy crypto markets.
Chase’s feedback carry much more weight when seen towards the backdrop of formal regulatory motion and repeated public complaints.
His description of a market dominated by liquidity video games and short-term incentives carefully mirrors the US SEC’s claims in its 2023 lawsuit towards Binance and founder Zhao Changpeng.
The grievance alleges wash buying and selling, quantity inflating, and inside market-making practices geared toward shaping worth notion.
By framing the manipulation as “open” and normalized, Chase’s feedback appear much less like remoted criticism and extra like insider affirmation of system-wide vulnerabilities.
Binance has come underneath elevated scrutiny as a result of suspicions surrounding the “10/10” flash crash on October 10, 2025. Critics argue that the alternate’s construction might have amplified chain liquidations.
In the course of the sharp drop that hit Bitcoin and main altcoins inside minutes, customers reported delayed orders, disabled options, and irregular worth will increase. These disruptions led to pressured liquidations at far above regular ranges, echoing earlier accusations of meant volatility.
Binance administration, together with Richard Teng and founder Changpeng Chao, denied manipulation, saying the occasion was as a result of macro shocks and industry-wide leverage.
Nonetheless, the occasion strengthened broader issues raised earlier within the US SEC’s actions that opaque market-making practices and concentrated liquidity can enhance systemic threat in occasions of stress.
Former Binance Insider Reveals Surprising State of Bitcoin $ATH First appeared on BeInCrypto in 2026.
