Bitcoin’s oft-cited “Ramadan Rally” setup might disappear by 2026. Nevertheless, the volatility sample that many merchants have famous lately seems to nonetheless exist.
To be clear, Islam’s holiest month has nothing to do with digital belongings. Cryptocurrencies are traded based mostly on international liquidity, macro information, positioning, and sentiment.
Nonetheless, wanting on the previous seven Ramadan intervals (2019-2025), Bitcoin has proven a surprisingly constant form in 6 out of seven circumstances: an preliminary sharp transfer, adopted by unstable buying and selling, adopted by a decline or decline. The principle exception was 2020, when stronger macro restoration traits dominated.
Bitcoin value chart for the previous 7 years of Ramadan
What the previous seven Ramadans have proven us
This sample was not “Bitcoin at all times rises in Ramadan”. That is not true.
As an alternative, the repeating sample was extra particular. Bitcoin has regularly seen front-loaded volatility. Usually, there was a robust early transfer, adopted by depletion and a weak exit in the midst of the interval. In some years, Bitcoin nonetheless ended Ramadan at an total excessive. However even then, costs typically fell again after peaking in mid-Ramadan.
As such, that is extra of a timing and construction sample than a directional sample.
Bitcoin value chart for the previous week. Supply: CoinGecko
What’s going to change in 2026?
The primary week of this yr seems completely different in a single vital approach. Bitcoin didn’t begin buying and selling with a clear rally. It began with a chop, then a pointy flash, and solely then did it start its bounce try.
That’s, the form of the sample continues to be acquainted: fast actions, emotional swings, unstable recoveries, however the order has modified. A minimum of for now, the market seems weaker than in the course of the sturdy months of Ramadan.
On-chain information exhibits why Bitcoin stays weak in Q1
On-chain photographs are combined.
First, Binance’s buying energy index has fallen to a degree that was beforehand compressed and near exhausted.
It is a contrarian constructive. This means {that a} bailout rebound might happen if promoting strain eases.
Binance Buying Energy Index Hits Acquainted Lows
“The info exhibits a well-known sample: the buying energy window compresses, the market catches its breath, and, if historical past holds its personal, it tends to resolve to the upside.” – @Crazzyblockk
Full evaluation ⤵️ https://t.co/S5xEk9EgCo pic.twitter.com/7pGU0nh76n
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 23, 2026
Moreover, community exercise has been weak for six consecutive months. That is a structural warning. This means demand and participation stay weak, which might make gatherings weak.
An lively tackle on the Bitcoin community. Supply: CryptoQuant
Third, even after the worst of the capitulation subsides, realized losses for short-term holders stay unfavorable.
Merely put, panic promoting has slowed, however many current consumers are nonetheless exiting with losses. This sometimes signifies the formation of a base relatively than a agency uptrend.
7D-EMA of current investor web realized positive factors and losses. Supply: Glassnode
Total, there’s a good likelihood that Bitcoin will get well or try a unstable restoration within the coming weeks, particularly if Binance’s buying energy indicators play out.
Nevertheless, the on-chain demand and STH P&L context means that the upside could also be fragile and resistant initially.
In different phrases, the previous Ramadan “rise” narrative seems to be weakening in 2026. Nonetheless, the broader sample of early volatility, sharp swings and unsure follow-through stays seen.
The article “Bitcoin’s well-known Ramadan rally is unlikely to happen in 2026, however some patterns are well-known” was first printed on BeInCrypto.
