This can be a speculative report translated for non-experts. The narrator is an investigator who arrives lengthy after people have disappeared. All the things described as measured relies on how Bitcoin really works, together with block spacing, problem/targets, timestamp guidelines, and knowledge out there from block headers and Coinbase transactions.
We have now arrived on a quiet planet. The final clock nonetheless ticking was embedded in a ledger whose creator is gone.
Begin report
group: Investigation unit 3
artifact: International Ledger (“Bitcoin”)
Know-how: Mild chain evaluation mapped to photo voltaic time (header + coinbase)
technique
We analyzed the digital artifact often called Bitcoin utilizing the next identification: block header (timestamp, goal/’bits’, model) and for every block. coinbase transaction (top, output worth, tag textual content).
From our final preliminary evaluate, we constructed the next knowledge factors.
- Payment It was handled like this: Coinbase Manufacturing Quantity – Programmed Subsidy (Charges really charged by the miner).
- Timestamps are aligned to Earth’s photo voltaic day and photo voltaic 12 months, and are restricted by Bitcoin’s photo voltaic calendar. Historic median (MTP) rule.
- proof of Chip battle (outdated block) guessed From timing irregularities and MTP edge results. anyplace Archive outdated blocks Their survival in remoted nodes helps their period.
- Issue retargeting occurred each time 2016 block and precise timespan It’s fastened at 0.25-4x the 2-week purpose, that means that the problem change per epoch is proscribed to a most of 0.25x. 4× In both path.
Survey outcomes
cease cost
ΔH (block earlier than present) was recorded to be ≈ 86,000. Which means that Coinbase’s output was equal to the deliberate subsidy. Payment ≈ 0. Over the identical interval, the common block spacing settled virtually shut collectively. Roughly 60-70 minutes Within the long-term common ~65 minutes.
interpretation: Human funds have been suspended. Mechanical publication continued.
Date: 86,000 blocks × roughly 65 minutes ≈ ~10.6 years earlier than we arrive.
energy provide timing signature
The arrival of the block after the collapse was not unremembered. Diel and seasonal rhythms encoded unattended energy configurations.
- Daytime clusters with nighttime gaps Repeated over low latitudes and longitudes → uninhabited photo voltaic There’s storage deterioration.
- Irregular bursts of hours interrupted by gaps of a number of days In mid-latitudes→ wind It failed throughout a storm and didn’t reset.
- persistently current all through the night time at some longitudes → small hydro or geothermal Working on distant islands.
We estimated recurring daytime timestamp clusters to align with native photo voltaic midday. longitude band Of the websites that survived. The power of the seasonal variation in block arrivals led to coarse outcomes latitude zone. Actual website coordinates couldn’t be recovered.
Terrace problem degree (fade, time specified)
Instantly after the hashrate shock, the common block time decreased from about 10 minutes. time. The issue degree solely retargets every time, so 2016 block And the modifications in every period boundeda series was shaped terraceplateaus of roughly fixed imply spacing separated by discrete downsteps.
Typical sequences noticed within the world ledger:
- Terrace A: ～16-17 hours/block for 2016 block → Progress ~3.8 years.
- Terrace B: ～4.1 hours/block for 2016 block → ~0.95 years.
- Terrace C: ～62-65 minutes/block for 2016 block → Roughly 87-91 days.
- Terrace D: ～15-16 minutes per block for ~twenty secondthen a brand new {hardware} failure occurred and the chain turned sluggish once more.
If the residual hashrate is ≈1% Spanning solely pre-event terrace A ~3.8 years ~16.7 hours/block. ~in0.1%the identical 2016 block epoch is ~38 years outdated Roughly 167 hours/block, which is throughout the tuning limits of the protocol. The rhythm in a single area matched the case for about 16 to 17 hours per block.
Find out how to learn terrace (processing calculation):
Epoch size = 2016 blocks. If the commentary interval on the plateau is 16.7 hours, then the elapsed time of that epoch ≈ 2016 × 16.7 hours ≈ 3.84 years.
Recorded community decline
When the correct clock disappears, the miner’s timestamp turns into drifted in a constant regional sample. Bitcoin’s medium time period plan Though this rule restricted timestamp abuse (every new block needed to be later than the median of the 11 earlier blocks), it didn’t get rid of drifting signatures.
Advances in Interval Distribution and Clustered MTP Restricted Timestamps Revealed intermittent partition and Chip battle;When any hyperlink (satellite tv for pc, microwave, and so on.) is restarted, the competing branches are reconciled and solely the successful department stays canonical.
If no archive of outdated blocks is stored, the measured competition is decrease restrict.
A maker mark that has outlived the producer
Coinbase tag string (pool label) and steady nonce/model Fingerprints remained for years after the charge assortment actions ended. The default is not going to change even when the operator disappears, Software program/{Hardware} Household Identifiable on report. (Coinbase tags are seen by means of coinbase transactions. Headers solely don’t comprise tags.)
Relationship main occasions (precise examples)
- “Cost has been accomplished.” the place is the window Coinbase output = subsidy It began on ΔH ≈ 86,000. Utilizing the noticed ~65 minutes/block, we get: ~10.6 years Earlier than the current.
- The primary post-shock retargeting was accomplished. First block discount of 2016 accomplished ~3.8 years After hashrate collapse (plateau of roughly 16.7 hours per block).
- Lastly detectable hydrocadence. The heavy, virtually fixed signatures like final night time have stopped. ~1.9 years Earlier than the current. The previous seven springs have seen a rise in multi-day energy outages, coinciding with clogged water intakes and flood harm.
All conversions use noticed It is a section common, not a nominal 10-minute purpose.
Estimated time required (machine uptime)
- Minimal confirmed worth: over 10 years After financial exercise ceased (from plummeting charges to rhythms just like the final hydroelectric technology).
- Potential higher restrict (area): for many years Working at very low hash charges. Single 2016 block epoch Adjustment limits prolong to a long time.
The one necessities are (a) not less than one surviving energy supply, and (b) an intermittent path for some blocks to achieve the worldwide community.
Abstract report
In the end, the ledger will present when funds stopped, how power decreased, how the community decayed, and the way lengthy unattended machines continued writing, sufficient to reconstruct the top of the exercise from headers and Coinbase alone.
finish of report
What ought to readers take away from this?
- Bitcoin works like a musical instrument. Issue guidelines and timestamp constraints translate bodily actuality, energy availability, operator absence, and community fragmentation right into a persistent time collection.
- Writing was terminated attributable to bodily failure slightly than value. Mud, a clogged display, a tripped breaker, a clock that is off, a damaged hyperlink.
- These forensic methods nonetheless apply at this time. Block spacing, charge strain (by way of Coinbase Delta), timestamp drift, and retargeting dynamics are actionable diagnostic info for present outages and partitions.
restrict
- Longitude bands could possibly be estimated. The precise website was not. Latitude was estimated solely roughly from the power of seasonality.
- Totally remoted “shadow mining” might have produced blocks that by no means attain the worldwide ledger.
- If no archive of outdated blocks is stored, the competition estimate is: decrease restrict;Some races go away no canonical traces.
- MTP is primarily saved when time supply synchronization fails relative orderingnot precise official time. Lengthy calendar days introduce extra uncertainty, even when the diurnal/seasonal construction is evident.
- In a really low hashrate regime dominated by a single surviving operator, timestamps could also be marched inside MTP limits, partially masking intraday signatures. Cross-checking utilizing nonce patterns and Coinbase tags will mitigate this, nevertheless it can’t get rid of it.
- largely OP_RETURN The payload couldn’t be decoded or interpreted at scale.
