Glassnode knowledge exhibits {that a} Bitcoin “loss of life cross” (a technical evaluation time period that may point out a bearish sign) is imminent, however there’s a catch.
Bitcoin’s 50-day shifting common of $110,669 is at present under its 200-day shifting common of $110,459, doubtlessly triggering a loss of life cross. This crossover is broadly seen as a bearish sign in technical evaluation, because it displays a weakening of short-term momentum in comparison with the long-term pattern.
Nonetheless, this could additionally function a optimistic sign.
Bitcoin is at present down about 25% from its October excessive of about $126,000, and this correction has lasted about 41 days. Regardless of Dying Cross’ popularity, that is the fourth Dying Cross outbreak since this cycle started in 2023, with every earlier occasion coinciding with a serious native trough.
Bitcoin bottomed at round $25,000 in September 2023, discovered help round $49,000 in August 2024 in the course of the unwinding of the yen carry commerce, after which bottomed under $75,000 in April 2025 amid uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff coverage.
Within the present setup, Bitcoin has fallen to $94,000, and in all 4 cases thus far, the market has hit lows simply earlier than the loss of life cross fashioned, elevating the query whether or not the identical sample will play out once more.
Will it’s totally different this time?
This present drawdown is much less extreme than the correction in April, when Bitcoin fell under $75,000 throughout tariff-related turmoil.
April’s correction was deeper and longer than the present correction. Bitcoin has fallen about 30% since January’s excessive of round $109,000, and trended downward for about 79 days earlier than bottoming out within the first week of April. The present decline is 25% and 41 days, so there’s in all probability nonetheless an opportunity of additional decline.
Nonetheless, the broader surroundings now contains the tip of the US authorities shutdown on November twelfth. The closest comparability is the 2019 authorities shutdown, the place Bitcoin fell over 9% 5 days after the federal government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took about two weeks till February 9, 2019, for Bitcoin to recuperate.
BTC worth pattern throughout US authorities reopening in 2019 (Tradingview)
This time, Bitcoin has already fallen by 10% for the reason that restart. The query is whether or not the identical sample will play out once more.
