Bitcoin’s present bear market might get even worse subsequent yr if the flagship digital asset fails to deal with considerations about quantum computing.
Caprior founder Charles Edwards argued in a Feb. 20 report that Bitcoin’s market worth ought to already be discounted to account for quantum danger, and warned that the low cost might deepen rapidly if the community doesn’t transition to quantum-proof code.
In line with him:
“With out progress within the improve to quantum-proof Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s worth shall be halved in simply over a yr. With out progress, Bitcoin’s quantum low cost price will bounce to 75% in 2029.”
This prediction means that the worth of Bitcoin might fall from its present stage of $68,000 to round $30,000 by subsequent yr.
Nonetheless, he warned that if the community fails to deal with the specter of quantum computing, the state of affairs might get even worse, with Bitcoin’s worth doubtlessly dropping to zero after Q-Day.
Regardless of these considerations, Edwards argues that Bitcoin’s present worth is undervalued by about 30%, as its present truthful valuation is round $120,000, which drops to $96,000 when quantum danger is factored in.
He wrote:
“In different phrases, in case you are a long-term Bitcoin investor and are optimistic that we are able to remedy the quantum risk over the subsequent two to a few years, then a worth within the $60,000 vary might signify a sexy long-term funding alternative.”
The important level is just not {that a} quantum assault is imminent. Edwards’ framework is that if buyers imagine that the community’s governance and transition course of will take years, the market might begin reducing the worth of Bitcoin earlier than a “Q-Day” occasion.
In his mannequin, the danger is a reduction to valuation as a result of Bitcoin upgrades are sluggish and require in depth coordination throughout builders, nodes, miners, exchanges, and pockets customers.
Why markets can downplay future threats as we speak
Edwards’ memo argues that quantum danger has moved from a fringe subject to a timeline challenge.
He cites roughly 2,300 logical qubits as a threshold adequate to threaten Bitcoin’s present cryptography, and estimates {that a} cryptographically related quantum occasion is more likely to happen by 2030 and growing probability by 2031, primarily based on compiled trade forecasts.
In line with him:
“Bitcoin Q-Day is more likely to occur by 2030 (60% probability) and possibly by 2031 (80% probability).”
However his extra fast concern is Bitcoin’s response time.
Even in an aggressive state of affairs, Edwards estimates that it’s going to take roughly two years, and probably one to a few years, emigrate nearly all of lively customers to quantum-resistant wallets and code.
The hole between the tempo of quantum progress and the tempo of Bitcoin governance is the idea for his “low cost issue” argument.
Then again, this logic is not restricted to crypto-native commentary.
Final yr, BlackRock amended the iShares Bitcoin Belief ETF’s prospectus to explicitly warn that advances in quantum computing might invalidate Bitcoin’s cryptographic know-how.
In line with the corporate, this might compromise the safety of the pockets and pressure network-wide adjustments that might require widespread consensus and a number of forks. The submitting additionally states that there is no such thing as a assure that these transitions shall be carried out efficiently or on time.
For the market, that is essential as a result of it reframes quantum computing as a coordination and governance danger reasonably than only a {hardware} danger.
Even when the know-how arrives later than feared, uncertainty round readiness might nonetheless weigh on valuations within the meantime.
What’s at stake and why is it troublesome to debate?
Edwards divides Bitcoin’s quantum drawback into two components.
First, it’ll migrate lively customers to a quantum-resistant model of Bitcoin. The second is to deal with older or publicly accessible cash, which will be susceptible if a quantum system can get well the personal key from the general public key.
He estimates that 20% to 30% of Bitcoin’s provide has “public keys uncovered,” together with older and dormant cash, and warns that in a worst-case state of affairs, these cash might grow to be a serious supply of compelled provide.
At present costs, that 20% to 30% vary represents an amazing worth. Utilizing a Bitcoin provide cap of 21 million and a spot worth of round $67,178, the vary in danger is roughly $282 billion to $423 billion.
Of be aware, CoinShares’ February 2026 evaluation supplies numbers concerning the “lengthy publicity” challenge.
It’s estimated to be concentrated in conventional Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) output, which is equal to roughly 1.6 million BTC, or roughly 8% of the provision. It’s because the general public secret is clearly seen in these codecs.
However the portion that might trigger “substantial market disruption” if stolen instantly is way smaller. CoinShares estimates that there’s 10,200 BTC sitting in UTXO, which is giant sufficient to be an issue in a fast liquidation state of affairs.
Bitcoin has a proposal, however consensus is the troublesome half
To unravel the quantum computing risk, Edwards proposes a post-migration “useless man’s swap” idea that may freeze cash that don’t transfer to a quantum-resistant output inside a set window.
He argues that this method higher preserves the worth of the community, however acknowledges that it’s troublesome to succeed in consensus as a result of it goes in opposition to Bitcoin’s “not the important thing, not the coin” tradition for customers who lose entry and can’t migrate.
He says such compelled liquidations might undermine confidence in Bitcoin’s “onerous cash” idea and set off a extreme bear market.
In the meantime, the Bitcoin neighborhood is just not standing nonetheless and proposals are being superior to scale back the danger.
The draft proposal, BIP 360, is at present within the Bitcoin Enchancment Proposals repository.
It introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a proposed comfortable fork output kind designed to mitigate sure long-term quantum dangers and pave the best way for future post-quantum signature integration.
The draft specifies that this can be a first step, noting that safety in opposition to sooner “brief publicity” assaults should require post-quantum signatures.
Past cryptocurrencies, requirements our bodies are urging establishments to start out getting ready.
NIST says organizations ought to start migrating their methods to quantum-resistant cryptography, reflecting a broader shift to long-term planning reasonably than a last-minute response.
This helps the concept the market dialogue is transferring from “if” to “when and the way.”
For Bitcoin buyers, questions stay narrower than the headlines recommend. The query is just not whether or not quantum computer systems can beat as we speak’s Bitcoin.
The query is whether or not Bitcoin can present sufficient measurable progress alongside its improve path in order that quantum danger is just not closely discounted in an already fragile market.
