Dealer Plan C lately revealed a chart exhibiting a manufacturing price mannequin that places Bitcoin’s marginal mining price at round $67,000, and exhibits that historic value developments have repeatedly bounced again from that purple line.
He added that “commodities not often commerce for lower than their price of manufacturing.” Whereas the hook is clear and the logic is intuitive, the truth underlying Bitcoin’s latest volatility is extra advanced and informative than a single line can seize.
After hitting an intraday low close to $60,000 on February 6, Bitcoin has rebounded to round $70,000 on the time of writing, breaking by way of the extensively watched $63,000 threshold that was the premise for latest backside predictions.
Nonetheless, questions remained about whether or not the market was transferring from compelled deleveraging to true spot-driven value discovery and what indicators would converge to help that transition.
4 vital zones
Quite than on the lookout for a single magic quantity, analysts mix a number of frameworks to create demand ladders. Every tier represents a unique valuation anchor, which collectively map out the place shopping for stress may very well happen.
Zone A ranges from $70,600 to $66,900. Glassnode makes use of the UTXO realized value distribution mannequin to establish this as a dense cost-based cluster, indicating a excessive focus of cash that have been final moved on this value vary.
This cluster grew to become the closest on-chain absorption zone after Bitcoin misplaced its true market common of round $80,200.
Glassnode warns that any bailout rally dangers changing into correction noise except actual spot demand returns, as spot buying and selling volumes stay structurally weak.
Because of this if it bounces off this zone, it will likely be pushed purely by leverage flash and won’t settle.
Zone B is centered round $63,000 and is vital from a behavioral somewhat than an on-chain perspective.
Galaxy Digital’s analysis arm factors out that Bitcoin’s 50% drawdown from its October 2025 excessive of round $126,296 reaches virtually precisely $63,000, forming a clear round-trip threshold that mirrors the capitulation level of the earlier bear market.
The scenario under $63,000 may be learn in two methods: both help has damaged or the market has carried out a basic capitulation search earlier than discovering true demand.
Which interpretation is right relies on what occurs subsequent with flows and derivatives.
Zone C ranges from $58,000 to $56,000 and is dwelling to the 2 main cycle backside anchors.
Galaxy has articulated a 200-week transferring common of round $58,000 and a realized value round $56,000, ranges which have traditionally marked the decrease finish of the endurance cycle.
Glassnode has independently set the realized value at roughly $55,800. Each frameworks are constant. If the present rebound fails and BTC falls, this historically turns into a magnet zone the place long-term capital will get concerned once more.
Zone D introduces a manufacturing price mannequin, and that is the place the Plan C graph resides, however solely as considered one of a number of estimates.
Different fashions put the typical price of manufacturing at round $87,000, suggesting that spot buying and selling is properly under that estimate, stressing miners.
In the meantime, Plan C, a per-issue issue mannequin, locks in company prices within the low $60,000s. Nuance is vital. “Items can’t be traded under price” is a helpful course, however it isn’t an absolute flooring for Bitcoin.
Miners might function at a loss within the quick time period by promoting authorities bonds, introducing hedges, and using out the ache till the problem is adjusted downward and the marginal price falls.
Manufacturing prices act not as assured help, however as a stress gauge that drives provide reactions similar to miner capitulation and treasury liquidation earlier than the equilibrium is reset.
What does rebound affirmation really appear to be?
Declaring a regional flooring requires extra than simply holding ranges. The perfect indicators span derivatives, on-chain stress, institutional flows, and mining dynamics.
There are voices of worry within the derivatives market. Deribit knowledge exhibits a 25-delta threat reversal skew of roughly -13%, an inverted implied volatility time period construction, and detrimental funding charges. These are basic safety bid situations.
A rebound turns into extra dependable as skew recedes from excessive detrimental, IV normalizes, and funding turns into persistently constructive.
On-chain realized losses are nonetheless growing. Glassnode reported a seven-day transferring common of greater than $1.26 billion per day, which is in keeping with a compelled deleveraging.
A bullish shift would see realized losses peak and start to say no whereas the value stabilizes throughout the $66,900 to $70,600 vary, indicating vendor exhaustion somewhat than a short lived pause.
Institutional developments are towards us. There have been practically $690 million in month-to-month web outflows as of February 5, including to the $1.6 billion in web outflows recorded in January, based on knowledge from Pharside Buyers.
Within the illiquid atmosphere the place allocators drove a lot of the earlier rally, even a slowdown to flatness is vital, so the circulation reversal does not must be dramatically constructive.
Mining stress is reaching a turning level. TheMinerMag famous that the hash value is predicted to fall under $32 per petahash/second and drop by about 13.37% within the subsequent correction.
This easing may stabilize hashrate and ease promoting stress on miners, however provided that costs maintain lengthy sufficient for the correction to take impact.
| sign bucket | metric | Newest studying/system (as of article writing) | Bullish affirmation (what adjustments are wanted) | Persevering with bearishness (what to worry) | sauce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| derivatives | 25D Danger Reversal (Skew) | Brief-term skew is as much as -13% (Bid/draw back safety required) | skew rises in direction of 0 (much less demand for draw back hedges), stays there for a number of classes | skew stay deeply detrimental (Continued safety request) | Deribit Insights / Block Scholes “Crypto Derivatives: Evaluation Report – Week 6” (February 4, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| derivatives | PERP funding price | Funding lower than 0% / BTC Funding Pushed Negatively (Bearish Positioning) | funding sustainably flip constructive (Not only a one-day flip) | funding Keep detrimental or like a whip (Brittle bounce/quick stress sustained) | Deribit Insights / Brock Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| volatility | Construction of stage IV | ATM IV terminology construction reversed (Brief-term issues are priced in somewhat than long-term tenors) | construction normalizes the upward slope As spot stabilizes and panic premium fades | construction stay inverted (Markets proceed to cost in short-term stress) | Deribit Insights / Brock Scholes (Week 6, 2026). (Deribit Insights) |
| On-chain stress | Realized loss (7D SMA) | 7D SMA > $1.26 billion/day (Pressured sale/elevated stress) | realized loss reached a peak after which trended downward so long as the value stays Zone A ($66.9,000 – $70,600,000) | loss maintain leaping up (Provide stays at bid ranges; “aid rallies” are fragile) | Glassnode “On Chain Week – Bears in Management” (February 4, 2026). (insights.glassnode.com) |
| circulation | US Spot BTC ETF Web Stream (Month to Date) | February MTD (February 2-5): -$689.2 million (~-$690 million) Web (561.8 – 272.0 – 544.9 – 434.1) | spill Decelerate to flat/constructive (Even “not that unhealthy” helps with skinny liquidity) | spill speed up (Allocator promoting overwhelms spot bidding) | Farside Buyers Day by day Stream Sheet (February 2-5, 2026). (farside.co.uk) |
| mining | hash value | Hash value fell under $32/PH/sec (Profitability stress) | hash value secure/improved After assuaging the difficulties and value will probably be maintained | hash value additional down (Increased chance of miner sale/monetary reversal) | TheMinerMag (February 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag) |
| mining | Subsequent issue adjustment | Anticipated issue discount is ~13.37% (protocol facet aid, quick time period) | Alleviation of difficulties + Steady hashrate (Lower in surrenders, lower in compelled gross sales) | Hashrate continues to say no / Persistent stress regardless of adaptation | TheMinerMag (February 5, 2026). (TheMinerMag) |
Three future situations
The primary potential state of affairs is the formation of an area backside. Assist ranges from $66,900 to $70,600 as on-chain clusters take up provide. Derivatives normalize, flows cease bleeding and realized losses subside.
The upside will initially goal a return to the true market common of round $80,200 earlier than going through overhead provide from underwater holders.
The second state of affairs consists of an unstable downward drift. Galaxy sees a good probability that BTC may find yourself in a spread close to $70,000 earlier than BTC checks the $56,000 to $58,000 zone within the coming weeks or months.
This suits a market the place leverage is flush however spot demand is non-existent, which is Glassnode’s central caveat. The scenario stays unstable and aid efforts will not be sustainable.
The ultimate state of affairs is a deeper give up. One other compelled selloff, doubtless attributable to continued ETF outflows or macro threat repricing, will ship BTC by way of the present zone.
Right here, $56,000 to $58,000 is much less of a goal and extra of a stage that long-term capital has traditionally entered with confidence.
actual transition
The central story is whether or not Bitcoin is transferring again from leverage-driven pricing to spot-driven value discovery.
Glassnode believes that the market will stay weak till spot participation returns, and that normalization of derivatives alone won’t result in participation. Manufacturing price fashions present a helpful lens into miner economics, however they account for provide response mechanisms somewhat than value flooring.
Evaluating merchandise won’t work if issue is adjustable and miners can finance their operations by way of drawdowns.
ETF developments at the moment have macro weight. Flows are giant sufficient that capitulation turns into more and more obvious as a regime shift in allocator psychology, somewhat than merely reversing funding charges on offshore exchanges.
January’s outflows weren’t a retail panic, however institutional threat aversion, and reversing them would require a catalyst past a technical rally.
Bitcoin has regained a lot of the bottom misplaced within the washout, however changing that stage into sustained demand is a unique course of.
This knowledge offers a ladder of zones the place demand might emerge, a guidelines of confirmatory indicators, and a reminder that manufacturing prices, not flooring, are the first stress indicator.
Whether or not $60,297 marks a capitulation low or is simply one other step in one more correction will depend upon flows, what occurs subsequent with derivatives, and the willingness of spot consumers to intervene amid persistent fears.
