Bitcoin (BTC) hit practically $98,000 in a single day, however has risen about 5.5% in latest buying and selling to settle round $96,000. This rally has reignited a well-recognized query: Is that this a setup for a sustained rally above $100,000, or is it one other fragile push primarily based on a skinny order e-book and positioning recreation?
Market capitalization $1.91 trillion
24 hour quantity $46.5 billion
Greatest ever $126,173.18
Glassnode’s newest evaluation reveals a fragile image during which mechanical positioning has pushed latest actions whereas broader structural calls for stay uneven and liquidity stays compressed.
Provide meets demand at a vital threshold
Present costs sit inside a dense cluster of long-term holder provide constructed up between April and July 2025, starting from roughly $93,000 to $110,000.
Glassnode’s cost-based distribution heatmap reveals this overhead provide zone the place restoration has repeatedly stalled since November. With every try, they face new promoting pressures and are unable to take care of the structural restoration in costs.
This area has persistently acted as a transition barrier, separating correction phases from sustained bull markets.
The associated fee foundation for short-term holders is now $98,300, reflecting the typical entry value for latest consumers. Glassnord factors out that traditionally, regaining and sustaining this degree alerts a transition from a correction part to a extra sturdy uptrend.
Costs proceed to want to consolidate above $98,300 to revive confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.
The conduct of long-term holders offers the context for the quantity of oblique provide that the market should take up. Lengthy-term holders stay web sellers, however the distribution charge has slowed considerably from the aggressive promoting seen all through the second half of 2025.
Glassnode experiences that long-term holders are at present realizing a web revenue of roughly 12,800 BTC per week, which is down from the cycle peak of over 100,000 BTC per week.
This suppression means that revenue taking, whereas nonetheless lively, is way much less aggressive than in earlier distribution levels.
The circulation of funds from institutional traders has stabilized and the spot market has improved.
The circulation of institutional investor steadiness sheets has been fully reset.
Internet inflows have stabilized after a protracted interval of outflows throughout spot ETFs, corporates, and authorities entities. Spot ETFs turned optimistic and re-established themselves as main marginal consumers.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded web inflows of $1.5 billion in January, with practically $1.6 billion recorded between January 13 and 14, in keeping with information from Pharcyde Traders.
Spot market motion has turn into constructive. Cumulative quantity delta measurements on Binance and common exchanges have returned to a buy-dominated regime, reflecting a shift away from sustained sell-side stress.
Coinbase was essentially the most constant supply of gross sales all through the combination, however it considerably slowed down its distribution.
Whereas spot participation has not but proven the sustained, aggressive accumulation sometimes seen in a full development growth part, the transition to a web lengthy place signifies a constructive structural change.
The machine strikes on a skinny quantity
A brief liquidation mechanically strengthened the push into the $96,000 space, however it unfolded on comparatively skinny derivatives buying and selling volumes.
Glassnode notes that futures buying and selling volumes stay nicely under the lively buying and selling seen by means of most of 2025.
This breakout occurred in a comparatively illiquid setting the place modest positioning adjustments precipitated disproportionately massive value reactions. As a sensible matter, it did not take loads of new capital to pressure quick sellers out of the market and drive costs up by means of resistance.
This dynamic is immediately associated to liquidity points seen within the order e-book. Complete market depth was 2%, down about 30% from its 2025 excessive, information supplier Kaiko mentioned.
On Binance specifically, 1% depth peaked at over $600 million in October 2025, however fell under $400 million by December twentieth. Thinner books amplify value actions and make the tape extra delicate to massive flows and strategic positioning.
Blockchain information provides texture to this story.
On December thirty first, market maker Wintermute web deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated in periods of low exercise.
Making massive change deposits throughout skinny hours will increase the danger of getting a serious impression on the tape, particularly if the e-book lacks depth.
Nonetheless, operational framing has its limits. Though a broadly circulated declare on December thirtieth alleged “multi-billion greenback manipulation,” the overall quantity of on-chain transfers talked about was lower than $30 million.
The sharp intraday motion is best defined by a mixture of structural weak spot and stop-hunting slightly than a provable adjustment scheme.
$100,000 as a mechanical attractor
The $100,000 degree is on the convergence level the place the price foundation, possibility publicity, and vendor hedge match. Coin Metrics notes that decision curiosity is concentrated across the $100,000 strike value with an expiration date in late January.
Based on a report from Glassnode, sellers are shorting Gamma at about $95,000 to $104,000, doubtlessly growing the upside as they hedge by shopping for spot or futures if the value rises.
In a brief gamma setting, hedge flows won’t be able to soak up value fluctuations. As a substitute, they strengthen them.
This construction creates fragile stability. Volatility might stay low whereas costs are suppressed, however as soon as momentum is constructed, strikes usually tend to speed up than weaken.
Spot buying and selling is happening round $95,000 to $96,000, with value transferring into the quick gamma zone, the place sustained motion supported by quantity is prone to set off directional hedge flows.
Choice exercise close to the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. For brief-to-medium maturities as much as roughly three months, purchase name premiums considerably exceed quick name premiums, indicating sturdy demand for near-term upside threat.
In distinction, longer maturities confirmed the alternative motion, with richer name premiums on the skin of the curve getting used as alternatives to promote on high.
This cut up means that the market is bracing for the potential of retesting the $100,000 space, whereas on the similar time being hesitant to proceed to just accept above that degree for an extended time period.
Volatility is deferred, not resolved
Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL measurements hovering across the 40s.
Nonetheless, this interpretation masks an underlying vulnerability. Skew continues to be pricing in draw back threat, and a 25-delta skew continues to be biased towards places, particularly at intermediate and longer maturities.
This displays a market that’s snug with sustaining publicity, however unwilling to go with out insurance coverage.
The coexistence of low volatility and detrimental skew highlights an vital stress. Though contributors don’t anticipate a right away decline, they proceed to pay for uneven safety.
Volatility progressively will increase with maturity, suggesting that uncertainty is allotted to time slightly than particular short-term elements, in line with a market anticipating short-term stability whereas being uncovered to potential dangers.
$100,000 check
If Bitcoin is certainly poised for a sustained rally above $100,000, two situations want to come back into place.
First, the value must get well and maintain above its short-term holder price foundation of $98,300, permitting latest consumers to recoup their positive aspects and lowering the motivation to promote on a rebound.
Second, we have to concurrently enhance liquidity and circulation. Whereas ETF inflows remaining optimistic offers one sign, stabilization in depth is extra vital. If Binance’s 1% depth regime under $400 million continues, the market will stay susceptible to the whip.
Revenue-taking has cooled, distributions from long-term holders have slowed, and typical late-cycle euphoria indicators are now not flashing purple. Nonetheless, liquidity vulnerabilities introduce wildcards.
The order e-book is noticeably thinner in comparison with the October highs, and enormous flows in periods of low exercise may end in unusually massive tape actions.
The $100,000 degree is vital as a result of it’s the place a number of structural forces converge, together with price base, possibility publicity, and vendor hedging, and it turns into a pure attraction as soon as situations stabilize.
Whether or not Bitcoin can regain and maintain $100,000 relies upon much less on the story and extra on whether or not the market can rebuild depth whereas sustaining optimistic momentum. The indicator is inexperienced, distribution stress has eased, and institutional demand is secure.
Nonetheless, the mechanism stays fragile and up to date actions have occurred in skinny volumes with mechanical assist from quick overlaying.
That is the present state of affairs, the place even modest capital can create vital motion, however deeper subsequent accumulation is required to attain sustainability.
