It is nearly inconceivable to start out a dialog with Venezuelan dealer Alberto Cárdenas with out first asking, “What do you consider Bitcoin?” This was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market has at all times been astute, which has allowed him to foretell bearish or bullish actions up to now.
Though he doesn’t have a crystal ball for clairvoyance or fortune-telling, the analyst believes that Bitcoin has not but deserted the four-year market cycle, 2026 will likely be a bearish yr, the alt season is now not what it was earlier than, and most significantly: Bitcoin’s all-time excessive (ATH) is predicted to be up to date As early as November.
The one situation for the latter is that the U.S. Supreme Courtroom reverses all tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which might be a extreme blow to North American financial coverage.
“It’s doable that the court docket may rule towards the tariffs and block the entire subject. If that occurs, there may very well be a short-term affect of a weaker greenback as a result of the US must repay all of the tariffs it has imposed up to now. That may create a state of affairs that might set off value will increase for Bitcoin, gold, and belongings which are negatively correlated with the greenback,” Cárdenas defined to CriptoNoticias.
What specialists acknowledge is that the market is within the following state of affairs. Leveling course of with bearish bias as a consequence of lowered liquidity The macro atmosphere can be not good.
He believes that after macroeconomic circumstances change, resembling tariff points and the tip of the U.S. authorities shutdown, there will likely be a bullish rebound for Bitcoin.
It have to be remembered that on October sixth, Bitcoin reached its historic highest value, valued at $ 126,000 per unit, and this truth is reported by this writer. Nonetheless, the digital asset is presently struggling to remain beneath $100,000.
Bitcoin completes 4-year cycle and enters bear market
There are a number of opinions within the crypto ecosystem: If he Conventional 4-year Bitcoin cycle Terminated or nonetheless legitimate.
Those that now not think about it see that institutional funding and new laws, primarily from the US, have modified that, and that the “three-year bull and one-year bear” characterised by halvings is now not fulfilled. Cardenas is on the opposite aspect.
This cycle has been achieved with nice precision up to now, and if we perceive that stage of the cycle, we should always now be approaching the historic most. To me, given the variables of the cycle and a bearish yr for BTC in 2026, I consider the market is near a ceiling. We have to put together for a tough 2026 for Bitcoin and it is going to be mounted.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
What it does guarantee is that while you take a look at the worldwide macroeconomic panorama, the present state of affairs is totally different from previous cycles. Relating to this level, he identified that: An important variable is that liquidity isn’t considerable It occurred within the earlier cycle as nicely.
“There’s international uncertainty proper now,” he stated. “There are vital questions concerning the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that went into impact in August. We do not know the way the economic system will react within the coming months.”
Relating to the alt-season, our interviewees are adamant that the alt-season is now not what it was. His view is that there’s a rotation on this planet of cryptocurrencies that isn’t supported by liquidity.
“Proper now we’re seeing one thing just like the rise in ZCash, which is unbelievable, however an uneven and punctual rise in some currencies, however whereas we’re seeing weak spot in XRP, we’re seeing weak spot in different currencies. What’s there may be an inner rotation that often occurs in nearly all markets.”
Commenting on the extended U.S. authorities shutdown, Cárdenas stated that though such conditions often should not have a huge impact available on the market, this time it has been longer than mandatory, so it’s essential to have in mind components resembling the shortage of transparency in official knowledge.
Venezuelan inventory market and tokenization
Cárdenas was at all times pondering Venezuela as a “laboratory” for digital currencies. It is because, as this week’s editorial factors out, the nation has taken a number of paths on this planet of digital belongings lately: from regulation, adoption, and mining bans, to the creation of its personal token (Petro), to the present frenzy surrounding USDT, the Tether stablecoin.
Past this actuality, the dealer sees the nation probably beginning to have interaction within the tokenization of actual world belongings (RWA), which may open the door to an unprecedented market.
In truth, as he commented, the Caracas Inventory Trade already has instructional involvement with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
“A course on tokenization was held just lately, however the potential for a undertaking of this kind has not but been confirmed. “I feel it is vitally attention-grabbing that, for instance, the Caracas Inventory Trade is dedicated to noticeably understanding the problem of tokenization,” the analyst added.
Contemplating the worldwide pattern of digitizing actual property, monetary merchandise and even paintings, Cárdenas stated: Rethink your online business as this monetary enterprise area is probably going altering.
I feel the outdated mannequin primarily based on transaction charges, as practiced by brokerages, is dying out. In my view, that’s ending and enterprise is turning into extra environment friendly. The enterprise wants to maneuver on to one thing else, possibly storage, safety, possibly consulting or one thing, however that outdated buying and selling enterprise there isn’t any enterprise there anymore.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan dealer
When requested what areas Venezuela would possibly think about tokenizing, he stated actual property is a “very attention-grabbing space.”
“That may give fluidity and liquidity to an inherently illiquid market.”Different areas he sees potential embrace the agro-industrial sector, commodities, inventories and shares in corporations listed on the inventory market.
“The scope is large, however we at all times have to consider the constructive affect it may have on the nation. “If it provides liquidity and dynamism and finally turns into a bridge to draw international funding.”
