Bitcoin Supply Guide: Miners get nervous as holders sell, ETFs add pressure

Bitcoin Provide Information: Value-Primarily based Bands, Miner Stress, and ETF Movement Indicators

Bitcoin is at present buying and selling exterior of the $93,000 to $110,000 price base vary that Glassnode units as its “overhead provide” zone.

On this setup, the following quarter’s provide story is mirrored in miner money flows and holder conduct moderately than issuance schedules. In response to Glassnode’s Week On-chain W02 2026, the associated fee foundation for short-term holders (STH) is near $98,300.

This stage is commonly the reference level for latest patrons to determine whether or not so as to add publicity or allocate to the rebound.

On the similar time, the mining market is pricing in a much less worthwhile regime.

In response to the hash price index abstract dated January 26, 2026, the six-month hash value ahead curve is roughly $33.25 (roughly 0.00041 BTC) per PH/second per day, which is beneath the break-even zone ($39.50) for a lot of miners, relying on working prices and machine kind.

Associated trendingcoinz context: Miner stress narratives usually depend on the identical profitability/problem loop defined in that Bitcoin’s hashrate continues to say no as a result of hovering costs cannot persuade miners to show their machines again on.

An extra variable this quarter is whether or not the ETF’s flows act as a sink for tradable provide or a launch valve.

Web outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been recorded at $681 million within the first full buying and selling week of 2026, with risk-off settings linked to rate of interest forecasts and macro information headlines, in response to information from SoSoValue. Web flows final week amounted to damaging $1.3 billion, the worst week since Could 2025.

For extra context within the trendingcoinz report on the identical early 2026 movement regime, see “3-12 months Path Clear for Bitcoin to Rise Above $126,000, however Brutal $1.3 Billion Outflow Adjustments All the pieces At the moment.”

Necessary factors

• The Bitcoin issuance schedule is mounted by the protocol, with a cap of 21 million and rewards halved each 210,000 blocks. In response to Blockchain.com’s provide chart, short-term “provide shocks” have a tendency to return from tradable float and incentives.
• Glassnode’s present overhead provide is between $93,000 and $110,000, and STH’s price base is roughly $98,300. In response to Glassnode W02 2026, this vary will likely be a requirement absorption check for the present quarter.
• Hashrate and problem have already adjusted to emphasize, with the 7-day SMA hashrate on January twenty second transferring from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s and problem dropping 3.28% to 141.67T, in response to Hashrate Index (January 26, 2026). For background, see Bitcoin hashrate hits new excessive of 943 EH/s as problem adjusts downward by 0.45%.
• Mining forwards suggest roughly $39.50/PH/s per day over six months, persevering with to give attention to miners’ monetary administration and shutdown dangers. In response to the hashrate index, the “break-even level” will depend on working prices and fleet effectivity.
• After a horrible month to start out the 12 months with $1 billion in web outflows, the course of ETF flows stays a variable.

who is that this for

• Lengthy-term allocator that tracks cohort provide, cost-based bands, and maturity dynamics
• Swing merchants will give attention to STH price base and oblique provide response
• Institutional desk that screens ETF movement regime and miner-driven liquidity
• Mining and infrastructure operators managing hash value publicity and problem timing

Highlights of this quarter

• Worth pattern round STH price base round $98,300 regains place inside $93,000-110,000 overhead band (Glassnode W02 2026)
• The 6-month hash value forecast recovers to close $39.50/PH/sec/day and the spot hash value diverges from the curve (hashrate index).
• The frequency of problem changes since January twenty second has decreased by 3.28% to 141.67T (hashrate index).
• Venue movement combine (Glassnode W02 2026), together with Glassnode observe that Binance and common change flows have shifted to a buy-dominated regime whereas promoting stress on Coinbase has eased (Glassnode W02 2026)
• The Weekly Spot Bitcoin ETF noticed web inflows after $1.3 billion in outflows final week.

Fundamentals of issuance + half-life (mounted and floating)

Bitcoin’s complete provide chain is decided by the protocol layer, with a most of 21 million BTC, and the block subsidy is halved each 210,000 blocks.

This constraint is vital for long-term analysis and quarterly issuance calculations. New provides will come on a schedule that the market can mannequin.

The extra urgent concern for subsequent quarter is the quantity of provide out there out there.

This implies stock that may attain spot venues via miner gross sales, holder distribution, ETF creation or redemption. “Provide shocks” usually happen right here as a result of the issuance curve is thought whereas the liquidity willpower is conditional.

Most quarter-scale volatility maps to seconds.

Miner economics and promoting stress (why hash value is a stay provide lever)

Mining acts as an elastic provide lever, because the sale of BTC by miners is without doubt one of the few structural sources of standard distribution.

That resilience confirmed itself in late January. Hashrate Index reported that on January 22, the 7-day SMA hashrate decreased from 1,003 EH/s to 966 EH/s, and the community problem adjusted by 3.28% to 141.67T.

Futures markets additionally imply that miners’ margins are constrained.

The identical abstract studies that HashPrice Ahead Curve pricing will common round $33.25 per day per PH/sec over the following six months. Hashrate Index individually explains that for a lot of miners, the close to break-even level is $39-40/PH/sec per day, however emphasizes that this varies relying on working prices and machine mannequin.

This quarter’s forward-looking body makes use of three conditional paths primarily based on these information factors.

• Grind near breakeven: If the hash value recovers to across the ahead implied ~$33.25/PH/sec/day, high-cost fleets will face a more durable monetary state of affairs.
• In response to Hashrate Index, this might result in periodic hashrate declines or non permanent spot promoting to fund administration.
• Aid from hardship: If the hashrate drops additional, the following lower in problem might enhance the income per hash unit even when the BTC value stays flat.
• It will cut back pressured margin promoting, as proven by the January 22 adjustment.
• Macro-driven compression: If a broader risk-off motion weighs on BTC costs whereas hash costs are close to break-even, closures might speed up.
• This ends in the identical problem mitigation loop with unsure timing.

Miners’ stability sheet insurance policies can change realized promoting stress inside 1 / 4.

Associated trendingcoinz Miner Stress Framing: Bitcoin faces potential miner capitulation as hashrate continues to say no.

Lengthy-term holders and short-term holders (the place oblique provide truly comes from)

Glassnode’s present map constructions provide overhang as a cost-based band moderately than a single value.

Week On-chain W02 2026 defined that the market is a check provide starting from roughly $93,000 to $110,000, with an STH price foundation of $98,300.

That framework is vital this quarter because it defines the place earlier patrons will make the most of the rally to exit.

It additionally defines the place new demand should take up stock to keep away from new distribution.

Holder conduct softened in comparison with late 2025 with out turning to accumulation.

In response to Glassnode, long-term holders (LTH) provide continues to pattern downward, however the price of decline has slowed considerably in comparison with the distribution seen via the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Moreover, LTH’s web realized revenue is near 12.8 million BTC per week, which is down from the cycle peak of over 100,000 BTC per week.

The regime change situation recognized by Glassnode for a extra sturdy rally is a change in mature provide exceeding LTH spending.

If that occurs, the availability of LTH will additional enhance. On a quarterly foundation, the overhead band can solely clear if promoting stress slows quicker than new or returning demand.

When readers examine dashboards, one vital technical observe is vital.

Glassnode’s provide endpoint doesn’t deal with 155 days as a tough cutoff. That cohort makes use of logistic weighting centered at 155 days and with a transition width of 10 days.

Frequent delusion (offering a narrative that isn’t topic to analysis)

• Fable: A halving instantly runs out of tradable provide. Whereas issuance adjustments are identified on a block-by-block foundation, quarter-scale provide pressures are sometimes pushed by miner profitability and holder allocation choices.
• Fable: 155 days is a tough boundary for LTH classification. Glassnode’s provide cohort makes use of logistic weighting centered at 155 days with a transition width of 10 days, which influences interpretation round inflection factors.
• Fable: Miner give up is a single occasion. The hashrate and problem system could progressively decline after which normalize profitability per unit hash, as seen within the problem decline on January twenty second because the hashrate declines.

Metrics Dashboard (minimal set to observe for the following 6 months)

Purple flags and overrides

• Within the absence of a dataset for the present date, a declare that the change stability has “lately decreased by X%” must be handled as invalid.
• The “break-even hash value” has to take care of operational prices and {hardware} situations, because the hash price index is ready as $39-40/PH/sec/day as near break-even for a lot of miners, relying on these inputs.

Motion guidelines, monitoring routine

• Weekly: For comparability, we use the report linked to SoSoValue to document the signal and magnitude of ETF web flows because the -$681 million outflow week.
• Every problem epoch: We monitor whether or not the problem continues to lower after the three.28% discount on January twenty second and examine it to the hashrate course within the miner stress context.
• Each day/Rolling: We examine the spot hash value to the 6-month ahead common round $33.25/PH/s/day to find out whether or not miners face tightening or easing.
• System examine: Underneath Glassnode’s “maturity exceeds spending” situations, we are going to monitor whether or not LTH provide continues to expertise a web decline or begins to extend.
• Pricing context: These ranges are mapped primarily based on STH and overhead provide prices within the present Glassnode framing, so look ahead to market reactions round $98,300 and inside $93,000 to $110,000.

These inputs should be tied to a set Bitcoin issuance schedule.