Bitcoin (BTC) remains to be buying and selling between $60,000 and $70,000 (USD), about 48% beneath its all-time excessive reached on October 6, 2025, however there are rising expectations for additional declines this yr.
“Everyone seems to be ready for $40,000 in Bitcoin,” a dealer often known as Recto Fencer commented from his imaginative and prescient on February 24, 2026. In accordance with his evaluation, Bitcoin’s present decline is a repeat of the sample that occurred in Might 2022 Over the last bear cycle.
At the moment, costs had been in a interval of flattening after falling sharply, after which falling to decrease ranges. On this sense, the sideways part that Bitcoin has exhibited over the previous three weeks may be thought of as a downward break. That is illustrated by the analyst within the following graph.
Nonetheless, Recto Fencer recalled: In 2022, “many bassists “They tried to purchase low and missed the underside.”. For him, there’s a “lesson” on this cycle. The secret’s to not attempt to enter by guessing the underside value.
His feedback come amid rising predictions of a backside for Bitcoin this yr. The Polymarket prediction platform reveals that the very best stakes (each for and towards) will fall from $45,000, whereas Karshi will drop to $44,000.
Bitcoin’s historic cycle repeats
Echoing this, Nick O’Neill, co-founder of market, leisure and training firm Bodogos, stated on February twenty second: Technical evaluation is changing into established Alongside together with his bearish thesis. In accordance with his imaginative and prescient, “$40,000 might arrive” by the top of March.
Through the dialogue, he additionally famous that the Concern and Greed Index has fallen to five, the bottom degree for the reason that FTX chapter. “And all of the analysts I surveyed level to the identical alarming conclusion: this can be a repeating four-year cycle,” he added.
This type of cycle implies that Bitcoin It’s all the time acknowledged that the top of a protracted bull interval is reached the yr after the halving, after which a bear market happens.. The most recent version of this occasion, which halved the quantity of BTC issued each 4 years, was in 2024.
“Macro principle hasn’t modified the sample,” O’Neill emphasised. He added, “Now we have not but reached an entire give up, so there’s a chance that it’ll fall additional.” In his opinion, the one query is whether or not the 200-week transferring common, situated at $58,000, can maintain because it in any other case would. Given the present bearish outlook, “frankly, that is going to interrupt his coronary heart,” he stated.
An error occurred whereas attempting to deduce the background
James Ford, an economist and director of the funding group Pragmatic Buyers, had beforehand raised an identical evaluation. In a report on February 6, when Bitcoin hit $60,000, its lowest degree in over a yr, he believed that if it follows previous patterns, Bitcoin might fall even decrease.
Over the last bear markets in 2022 and 2019, BTC costs fell by 84% and 77%, respectively, suggesting that the decline is changing into smaller and smaller. If this transfer repeats, costs might fall by about 75% from their all-time excessive earlier than stopping. That may be $31,000.
Nonetheless, Mr. Ford thought it clever to not attempt to pinpoint the precise backside of the bear market. As a substitute, he proposed a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) technique, which averages out acquisition prices by making common purchases.
This strategy is helpful Along with the present zone, you additionally allocate capital to $57,000 and $40,000.a degree that acts as a help. The economist instructed splitting the funding funds into 20%, 30% and 50% and deploying them at every degree or after a technical reversal is confirmed.
In any case, he cautioned that this strategy additionally comes with dangers, particularly within the present surroundings. “We’re coming into an unprecedented geopolitical period,” he stated, predicting that markets might face better stress.
However he argued that in contrast to earlier cycles, “Bitcoin has a significantly better place, with institutional buyers and even governments investing.” So it is bullish for the long run. His thesis relies on the inflow of institutional funding and the enduring shortage of Bitcoin.
This view comes as Bitcoin’s decline reveals correlation with the know-how sector within the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. That is largely as a result of tariffs that Donald Trump carried out regardless of adversarial court docket rulings.
