The Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market concern and greed index produced by CryptoQuant Explorer fell to five factors over the weekend.
That is the worst investor sentiment in 4 years for the reason that crypto winter of 2022. It is also one of many scariest states in market historical past, but it surely then rebounded barely over the weekend, reaching 8 factors as of this writing on Monday, February 16, 2026.
Related ranges existed solely in occasions of nice pressurethe underside of the bear market in 2018, the decline earlier than the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, the influence of the closure of the FTX cryptocurrency trade in 2022, and so forth.
On a scale of 0 to 100, ranges above 80 on this index replicate excessive greed within the Bitcoin market. Alternatively, a quantity under 20 signifies excessive concern.
“This reveals that this isn’t a light-weight precaution. “It is a mentality of give up,” emphasizes George Tung, an investor finest recognized on social networks as CryptosRus. “From a behavioral perspective, this quantities to traditional loss aversion,” he famous in a Feb. 15 publish.
What does this sense include? “After a pointy decline, buyers choose security and delay re-entries to attend for affirmation. Sentiment sometimes lags worth. Even after markets stabilize, confidence rebuilds slowly,” the analyst says.
On this situation, we’ve a concern index and a greed index that point out excessive concern, however not at as low a stage as CryptoQuant. CoinMarketCap has a stage of 12, whereas Coinglass has a stage of 11, with each reaching a rating of 5 on totally different dates in February.
Every of those indicators measures market sentiment primarily based on quite a lot of information, together with volatility, futures markets, and messages on social networks. Nonetheless, CryptoQuant doesn’t make it clear precisely what components are wanted to carry out the calculation.
Excessive promoting strain regardless of no “disaster”
Lowest level on concern and greed index These sometimes coincide with main gross sales and buy alternatives.. These intervals happen earlier than Bitcoin’s main long-term beneficial properties.
Though “excessive concern doesn’t assure speedy restoration,” it has traditionally marked “the early levels of the concern course of.” bottomed out«CryptosRus is defined. This idea refers to a recalibration of buyers’ positions and expectations.
“When crowds deal with avoiding additional ache slightly than pursuing upside potential, markets typically find yourself nearer to depletion than growth. That feeling fades, and a brand new cycle quietly begins from there,” he explains.
Anyway, Excessive concern doesn’t imply Bitcoin can’t fall in worth. In truth, the market all the time reaches its winter backside in cryptocurrencies not when it’s on this state, however generally after not at excessive concern ranges.
Different crypto winters have seen retail panic prevail resulting from catastrophic occasions such because the FTX chapter and the COVID-19 pandemic. Alternatively, the present excessive concern wouldn’t come up within the face of a panorama of such magnitude.
As an alternative, there was a recalibration of buyers’ positioning in several contexts. Amongst them, macroeconomic uncertainties and four-year historic patterns that may affect market sentiment stand out.
Historical past says 2026 can be bearish for Bitcoin
Bitcoin may flip bearish in 2026 if the traditional four-year sample continues. Bitcoin all the time reaches the tip of its uptrend the 12 months after the halving. This may be seen under.
The latest halving, which halves the quantity of BTC issued each 4 years, was in 2024. The worth is at present buying and selling round $68,000 (USD), 46% under the all-time excessive of $126,000 set in October 2025.
Traditionally, crypto winters have seen costs drop by round 80%. Nonetheless, every has minor modifications. On this sense, BTC’s decline on this cycle will not be over butNonetheless, it’s much less extreme than earlier than.
James Ford, economist and director of funding group Pragmatic Investor, mentioned: 75% drop from historic most is achievable. CriptoNoticias experiences that the worth can be lower than $40,000.
Nonetheless, you will need to be aware that there isn’t a assure that previous occasions will repeat themselves. In truth, varied analysts declare that BTC’s crypto winter may very well be milder because of the presence of institutional funding, which was not current earlier than.
