Constancy’s Julian Timmer stated Bitcoin might have accomplished one other halving in each value and time, inserting help within the $65,000 to $75,000 zone.
Whereas sharing the “Bitcoin Analogs” chart, Constancy’s Director of International Macro wrote:
“Whereas I stay bullish on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin could also be previous one other four-year halving cycle, each in value and time.”
He added that October’s excessive close to $125,000 is in keeping with a historic bull market, and that 2026 might doubtlessly be a “year-long break” as “Bitcoin’s winter has lasted a few yr.”
Bitcoin lookalikes trace at late-cycle cooling section as time catches up with value
This chart breaks down Bitcoin’s historical past into bullish (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (purple blocks) regimes, then overlays the “prime analogs” of earlier cycles (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle rallies are inclined to roll into cooling intervals.
Its central message is that the time issue is in keeping with the value issue.
Timmer’s judgment is tied to each the uptrend interval and the height degree, as earlier peaks had been concentrated within the prime window, adopted by a retracement section that might final practically a yr.
This configuration overlaps with the late-cycle framework demonstrated in trendingcoinz’s cycle clock evaluation. The framework tracked the 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-peak timing (roughly 526 days after the 2016 halving and roughly 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s October 6 print value was close to $126,200, arriving inside the projected window.
The follow-through and broader commerce then stalled, with main help round $108,000.
In current tapes, we examined whether or not the post-peak section is transitioning right into a deeper reset.
The liquidity and positioning lead famous that Bitcoin fell to round $99,075 on November 4th, and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tight liquidity and a weak urge for food to remain leveraged lengthy.
The report quotes CheckOnChain estimating that there can be about $34 billion in sell-side strain every month as older cash return to exchanges and demand slows.
It additionally highlighted the focus of the fee base, with about 63% of invested capital valued at $95,000 or extra, with degree merchants monitoring holder actions and suggestions loops from compelled gross sales.
Indicators of a post-peak reset and the way extreme it might get
Mr. Timmer’s $65,000 to $75,000 band additionally falls inside the drawdown calculation proven in trendingcoinz’s naked band mannequin.
The framework notes that earlier bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of about 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
They usually argue that ETFs and deeper derivatives might change the trajectory, leaving room for vital draw back.
Utilizing a 35% to 55% drawdown band from $126,272 offers us a trough zone round $82,000 to $57,000, which is a bracket that features a timmer help zone and is tied to a clear vary quite than a single goal goal.
The identical calculation implies a decrease interval that might be reached by late 2026 to early 2027 if the reset follows historic interval bands.
| 2026 state of affairs | the way it seems to be | value vary | what to see |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off Yr” Winter (Timer) | Vary buying and selling, excessive value decline, core of liquidation | $75,000 to $65,000 (inside drawdown band of ~$82,000 to $57,000) | ETF flows fluctuate from adverse to adverse, repeated help assessments, tight liquidity |
| shallow reset | Drawdown and unstable base constructing | Higher half of ~$82,000-$57,000 band, trending towards mid-$60,000 | Outflows stabilize, actual yields ease, compelled sellers decline |
| Tail threat deleveraging | The story of stress takes maintain and also you instantly chill out. | Under the band is a $49,000 printout with a abstract of the draw back paper | Sustained demand weak spot, elevated overseas alternate inflows, and diminished threat urge for food |
| cycle extension | Re-acceleration after recovering a damaged degree | Exceeds earlier vary and challenges post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal attributable to stream and breakout conduct, weakening promoting strain |
The most important query is whether or not the four-year template stays a viable baseline, or whether or not the market construction is diluting it.
In a touch upon the cycle’s weakening affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory advances have diminished the boom-and-bust mechanisms that after outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-led adoption to play out over time, a view that conflicts with the concept of designating 2026 as an “off yr.”
Why 2026 Macro Background May Flip ETF Flows into Bitcoin’s Dominant Value Driver
Even when cycle timing weakens, macro situations can nonetheless form the trail as they affect ETF stream conduct.
In its 2026 macro outlook, Financial institution of America’s base state of affairs of a 2.4% U.S. actual GDP progress price in 2026 and an easing of the rate of interest system towards the mid-3% vary by the top of 2026 are cited as being behind the flexibility to maintain actual yields barely constructive.
The identical article famous that Bitcoin ETFs can fluctuate by greater than $1 billion in a single day, making ETF flows the first transmission channel for yields and a shift towards spot demand for the greenback.
Looking forward to 2026, near-term decision-making factors will middle on the place holder and stream help meet.
The $95,000 price base shelf kinds the preliminary stress take a look at framework for positioning, whereas the $76,000 help map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framework is that if the final section ends in each value and time, the subsequent section can be a winter lasting a few yr, with help centered within the $65,000-75,000 vary.
