In keeping with the figures, the prediction market recorded its second highest notional buying and selling quantity in two years. In keeping with knowledge compiled by Dune Analytics, roughly seven platforms had $25.7 billion in notional buying and selling quantity in March, with many of the exercise targeting Polymarket and Kalshi.
Essential factors:
- Dune Analytics had buying and selling quantity of $25.7 billion in March. As exercise turns into extra concentrated, polymarket and kalshi grow to be dominant.
- Polymarket recorded 115 million transactions in March, whereas Karshi had 88 million. This measurement signifies additional market adoption.
- CFTC oversight and US lawmakers are concentrating on Polymarket, a market with open curiosity approaching $940 million.
Polymarket and Kalshi drive billions in buying and selling quantity
Dune.com knowledge compiled by @datadashboards exhibits prediction market quantity continues to hit new highs. Statistics for January 2026 present that the month marks the best level in notional quantity, reaching a file $26.75 billion, adopted by February’s complete of $23.24 billion. The statistics for March have been finalized, and the month recorded $25.7 billion, making it the second-highest month on file.
For the reason that month is incomplete, when mixed with April’s $3.9 billion, the cumulative complete from January 1, 2024 reaches $162.64 billion. March’s numbers spanned seven totally different markets, whereas Karshi and Polimarket led the sector with $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Polymarket buying and selling quantity is primarily pushed by politics, adopted by cryptocurrencies, sports activities, and world occasions.
The Dune dashboard exhibits Kalsi seeing elevated exercise throughout the economic system, finance, and politics, whereas additionally increasing into area of interest areas similar to local weather, climate, and transportation. Following the headline numbers introduced by Polymarket and Kalshi, Crypto.com, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.enjoyable, and Extra time.io make up the remainder of the cohort.
March noticed a pointy enhance in exercise, reaching roughly 207 million transactions throughout all tracked prediction markets. This represents a big month-on-month enhance in comparison with February’s 155 million. As soon as once more, Polymarket and Kalshi took the highest spot, with Polymarket accounting for 115 million transfers and Kalshi recording 88 million.
As of this writing, the prediction markets have a mixed open curiosity of roughly $939.86 million, with exercise largely targeting two platforms. Kalshi tops the checklist with $487.21 million, adopted by Polimarket with $422.09 million. Which means this pair accounts for almost all of at present’s complete positions. Smaller platforms had been far behind, with Predict.enjoyable at $19.51 million and Opinion at $10.38 million.
The remaining venues’ contributions had been small, with Limitless contributing roughly $666,520 and different venues totaling simply $3,760, indicating a pronounced top-heavy market construction. Polymarket and Karshi are attracting this demand regardless of some ongoing headwinds, together with sure market-related disputes associated to the US-Iranian battle. Democratic lawmakers are primarily against prediction markets and are pushing laws geared toward growing oversight.
The 2 main platforms additionally tackle state-level laws that battle with federal steering, notably from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC). Nonetheless, regardless of criticism and the prospect of regulatory motion, open curiosity and notional worth proceed to develop in Polymarket and Calci. Whereas it stays unclear how lengthy this momentum will proceed, it’s clear that prediction markets are right here to remain.
