Though Polymarket was based in 2020, it did not actually make its identify recognized till November 2024, after the US presidential election. Nevertheless, 2025 introduced unprecedented development to crypto-native apps because the decentralized prediction market developed into a global info useful resource continuously cited by the world’s prime media shops.
Simply 18 months in the past, Polymarket was in its fourth 12 months of existence and was processing volumes between $10 million and $30 million per week. Nevertheless, in November 2024, the platform shattered expectations, processing extra quantity in 5 days than in all of 2023.
By the best way, the prediction market’s quantity for 2023 was negligible, with some days buying and selling lower than $1 million.
Polymarket Quantity – DeFiLlama
Quick ahead to right this moment, Polymarket routinely processes $500 million a day, main information shops recurrently cite its potential, and its founder, Shane Coplan, has been referred to as the world’s youngest self-made billionaire.
Regulatory advantages
The Trump administration in america has embraced prediction markets, with the president’s son Donald Trump Jr. investing in Polymarket and serving as a strategic advisor to regulated competitor Calci.
Moreover, President Trump himself has humorously referred to polymarket odds, or as he calls them, “poly polls,” in public speeches.
Along with the presidential household’s vested curiosity within the success of the prediction market discipline, new regulatory adjustments scheduled for 2026 additionally bode nicely for prediction markets in comparison with conventional playing venues similar to on-line sports activities betting.
In accordance with america’ One Large Stunning Invoice, handed in July, gamblers’ loss deductions are capped at 90%, however prediction market merchants are topic to 100% of their losses being deductible in capital positive factors tax.
Though not explicitly mentioned, this alteration may very well be a think about conventional betting companies like DraftKings coming into the prediction market area as they search to retain energy customers, the place that further 10% is vital.
In October, DraftKings introduced the acquisition of Railbird Prediction Markets and introduced that Polymarket Clearing would be the official clearing home for the upcoming DraftKings Prediction Markets division.
Outlook for 2026
Final 12 months’s prediction market competitors was primarily characterised by an ongoing, and sometimes disagreeable, competitors between Calci and Polymarket.
Competitors intensified after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) searched the house of Polymarket founder Shane Coplan in 2024. Days after the incident, it was revealed that members of Carsi’s staff had paid influencers, together with former NFL Professional Bowler Antonio Brown, to slander Coplan on social media.
All through 2025, Calci and Polymarket will take turns revealing new VC funding and new partnerships, with their counterparts asserting strikingly comparable developments inside 48 to 72 hours.
However 2026 may very well be the 12 months Calci and Polymarket transfer away from their fledgling rivalry and lean extra into their very own person acquisition processes.
Polymarket is anticipated to formally launch within the US in 2026 after receiving operational approval from the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) in November, and the Polymarket US app is progressively rolling out restricted entry to US customers as of right this moment.
There may be additionally rising hypothesis relating to Polymarket’s future crypto activations, particularly a local $POLY token and probably its personal Ethereum Layer 2 community.
In the meantime, Carsi is going through authorized hassle in america after the state of Nevada, dwelling to the playing capital of Las Vegas, filed a cease-and-desist order in opposition to the state.
The choice got here after a U.S. district decide revoked a earlier seven-month injunction that had allowed Kalsi to function within the state. Nevertheless, it’s price noting that there isn’t a publicly obtainable info on whether or not the state plans to impose comparable restrictions on polymarkets.
Kalsi’s cryptocurrency integration plans stay unclear. The corporate is sponsoring a collection of crypto-native influencers on X and is specializing in integrating stablecoins for on- and off-ramping. Nevertheless, prediction market knowledge, order books, and person base stay utterly off-chain and gated by know-your-customer (KYC) restrictions.
Data introduced by the corporate and its associates means that Kalsi could proceed to lean additional into the cryptocurrency area past simply person acquisition, however there aren’t any official statements confirming this presently.
