The US authorities debt exceeded $38 trillion in early November, representing Bitcoin shares, which revealed bigger actions than the underlying BTC worth since January twentieth.
Whole public debt stood at $38.118 trillion as of Nov. 6, in line with the U.S. Treasury’s Penny Debt Information Set, a rise of about $1.1 trillion since Aug. 12 and greater than the $38 trillion mark in late October, which drew new headlines.
The $37 trillion threshold first made information in mid-August, and the following trillion arrived inside weeks as issuance continued.
Throughout the identical interval, spot BTC this month has typically traded inside a spread of $100,000 to $105,000, with a closing worth of $102,082 on January twentieth.
Due to this fact, from the standpoint of the unit of account, it turned clear that the motion of the legal responsibility was larger than the value at the start of the week. The bottom worth on Inauguration Day was $102,082, and in the present day’s degree is inside 10% of that worth.
TimechainIndex’s Sani calculated that at an working worth of $103,500 per BTC, the present US public debt is equal to roughly 368.3 million BTC, or $38.118 trillion divided by the BTC worth.
On January twentieth, @realDonaldTrump On the time of his inauguration, the value of Bitcoin was $103,500, the identical because it trades in the present day.
Throughout this era, the US nationwide debt elevated by $1.9 trillion, reaching $38.126 trillion.
In Bitcoin phrases, the debt elevated by 18,566,000 BTC, totaling… pic.twitter.com/du0NucMFa4
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) November 13, 2025
Debt excellent has elevated by roughly $1.9 trillion since January twentieth, and if we worth the change at $103,500 per BTC, this yields roughly 18.36 million BTC.
Bitcoin is down greater than 6% since Sani posted his perception, so this works out to 19.8 million BTC at $96,000.
Submit-halving manufacturing is near 450 BTC per day, or roughly 164,250 BTC per 12 months, so this 10-month enhance is equal to greater than a century of latest provide.
Inflows and outflows to the US Spot Bitcoin ETF add an incremental stress valve.
US spot ETF circulate tallies have been blended by means of early November, however that is necessary for the mechanical hyperlink between demand, worth, and ‘Debt in BTC’ ratio.
On the fiscal entrance, the Treasury continues to boost web new money by means of quarterly repayments. In November, the Treasury Division introduced a $125 billion issuance to pay for $98.2 billion in refunds that had been due, elevating $26.8 billion in new money. Ongoing SOMA outflows and tight maturity schedules preserve regular funding demand, in line with the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly compensation report and TBAC minutes.
A easy calculation highlights how mounted provide property work together with growing debt. Even when BTC traded at $200,000, utilizing the present degree of $38,118 billion, the excellent debt would nonetheless be equal to about 191 million BTC.
That is an order of magnitude larger than the roughly 19 million to twenty million cash in circulation in the present day. Whereas on-chain provide will enhance steadily as anticipated, the debt numerator may enhance by a whole bunch of billions of {dollars} inside weeks, relying on issuance and money balances.
The sensitivity to BTC worth is simple to clarify. The desk beneath reveals how the “Debt in BTC” determine compresses as the value will increase. We maintain the most recent debt whole fixed and spherical it to 1 decimal place for ease of studying.
| BTCUSD | US Debt (BTC) |
|---|---|
| $80,000 | ~476.5 million BTC |
| $100,000 | ~381.2 million BTC |
| $103,500 | ~368.3 million BTC |
| $120,000 | ~317.7 million BTC |
| $150,000 | ~254.1 million BTC |
| $200,000 | ~190.6 million BTC |
A sensible rule of thumb near present ranges is that for each $10,000 transfer in BTC, the “debt in BTC” determine modifications by roughly 32 million to 36 million BTC. This can be a 9-10% change throughout the curve and is non-linear.
This framework is just not an assertion that the US can or will repay its money owed with Bitcoin. Fairly, it’s a unit of account lens that compares mounted issued property with fiscal paths pushed by coverage and macroeconomic situations.
The lens can be delicate thus far changes. Since Treasury’s each day debt information is posted with a lag, it is very important match the closing worth of debt and the closing worth of BTCUSD on the identical calendar day to make sure accuracy. Since totally different worth sources can fluctuate by 1-2%, specifying the supply with every calculation helps maintain the calculations auditable.
To any extent further, the trail of the numerator and denominator will decide whether or not the chart curves downwards or not. When it comes to the numerator, the Treasury’s time period construction alternative and web new money demand will decide the extent of the rollover and the curiosity value path by means of 2026.
In line with the compensation report, roughly 31% of marketable debt matured inside 12 months in the newest quarter, with a mean maturity of almost six years. This mixture focuses on invoice share and coupon sizing if yields stay close to the present vary.
Concerning the denominator, the ETF’s circulate regime can change quickly, and continued optimistic flows will assist spot demand and mechanically scale back the “debt in BTC” ratio. Weekly fluctuations are nonetheless widespread as funds and advisors rebalance.
The macro overlay from the funds forecast leans towards larger curiosity prices at baseline. In line with the Congressional Funds Workplace’s 2025-2035 outlook, web rates of interest are projected to rise to about 4% of GDP by 2035, and with out coverage modifications, public debt is projected to succeed in about 156% of GDP by 2055.
In line with the Committee for a Accountable Federal Funds’s CBO baseline abstract, with near-term actual progress beneath 2% and inflation trending towards 2%, the nominal GDP denominator is just not pushed up considerably, supporting the arithmetic that the “debt in BTC” determine can be greater than steady except costs rise or the fiscal deficit is compressed.
It is simple to breed the calculation. Get the most recent public debt balances from Treasury Debt on the Penny portal, get the identical day’s BTCUSD closing worth from a constant index, and calculate “Debt in BTC” as DebtUSD divided by BTCUSD.
For the issuing context, use 450 BTC per day after halving. This methodology yields a determine of 368.3 million BTC at a worth of $103,500 on a debt foundation of $38.118 trillion, whereas mapping on the similar worth yields a year-to-date enhance of roughly 18.36 million BTC.
What to look at subsequent quarter can be developments in Treasury bids, modifications to web new capital targets, traits in ETF flows, and CBO updates as tax discussions resume in FY26.
Motion of any of those inputs will seem in both the numerator or the denominator.
The refunds raised $26.8 billion in new money and paid off $98.2 billion in refunds that had been due, in line with a November assertion from the Treasury Division.
