On X, Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson argues that the collapse of the mining financial system coupled with a rising shift by public miners to AI and high-performance computing might result in corporations changing into corporatized. $BTC Flip authorities bonds into a brand new supply of market provide.
“A significant underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the disaster hitting the mining financial system. The one solution to heal that is by way of hashrate decline, which is being led by AI computational pioneers like CORZ, WULF, CIFR, and IREN,” Thompson wrote.
The graph Thompson shared visually illustrates the issue. This reveals that the whole Bitcoin holdings throughout all main listed miners will rise sharply from 2024 to 2025, earlier than reversing in 2026. Thompson’s level isn’t that the AI pivot is structurally bearish.
Quite the opposite, a decrease hashrate and fewer uneconomic competitors might enhance the well being of the mining business over time. His level is that the transition itself will probably be pricey, and that capital-intensive AI ramp-ups might drive miners into liquidation. $BTC Beforehand it was handled because the Strategic Treasury.
“Whereas useful for the long-term well being and sustainability of the community financial system, Bitcoin miners maintain roughly 80,000 Bitcoins on their steadiness sheets, making a dilemma for costs within the quick time period.As these corporations pivot away from the community financial system, $BTC In the event that they do mining, they 1) want capital to fund the capital funding necessities of constructing the AI, and a pair of) there isn’t a cause to carry again on their funding. $BTC It must be included within the steadiness sheet (it shouldn’t be included upfront),” he argued.
Bitcoin miners shift focus to AI
2025 filings and public information make that argument extra concrete. Core Scientific’s fourth-quarter outcomes confirmed a shift in enterprise combine away from mining and towards AI-related infrastructure. Self-mining income decreased to $42.2 million from $79.9 million within the year-ago interval, whereas colocation income elevated from $8.5 million to $31.3 million. Administration mentioned the decline in hosted mining displays a “continued strategic shift” to high-density colocation. For the total 12 months 2025, Core generated $402.5 million in income from the sale of digital property, and ended the 12 months with $2,537 in income. $BTC It is on the steadiness sheet.
TeraWulf supplies even cleaner reads. The corporate mentioned it has “consolidated HPC internet hosting as a key development engine” in 2025, signed greater than $12.8 billion in long-term buyer contracts, and constructed a platform with 522 vital IT megawatts beneath contract. However as that building took form, the legacy mining enterprise nonetheless continued to be monetized. Fourth-quarter digital asset income was $26.1 million, in comparison with HPC lease income of $9.7 million, with the corporate’s year-end digital asset rollforward exhibiting 1,496. $BTC Mining, 1,500 $BTC I removed solely 3 $BTC It is going to stay on the steadiness sheet on December 31, 2025.
Cipher and IREN illustrate two different variations of the identical development. Cipher mentioned it elevated its deal with HPC in 2025, signing two HPC tenants for a complete of 600 MW of knowledge middle capability. It additionally offered Bitcoin for roughly $214.7 million in the identical 12 months. By the top of the 12 months, Cipher had categorised $94.9 million price of Black Pearl mining rigs on the market after coming into right into a sublease settlement to transition the location to an HPC tenant. Against this, IREN has already largely taken Treasury issuance off the desk, saying it has roughly 99,900 GPUs put in or on order as of December 31, 2025, and may have no Bitcoin on its steadiness sheet on the finish of the 12 months because it “usually liquidates all of the Bitcoin it mines each day.”
MARA is essential for one more cause. Though we’re not but as far alongside as Core, TeraWulf, Cipher, and IREN by way of remodeling our mine websites into full AI/HPC companies, we’ve deployed our first 10 AI racks in Granbury by November 2025 and have since introduced a Starwood partnership for AI and HPC infrastructure. Nevertheless, MARA is the Treasury heavyweight inside the group and its personal 2025 disclosures went in Mr Thompson’s course. The corporate introduced that it’s going to start promoting Bitcoin within the second half of 2025, with roughly 4,076 models offered. $BTC For the 12 months, it was $413.1 million, but it surely was nonetheless about $53,822 on the finish of 2025. $BTC.
That’s the pressure of Thompson’s paper. The transfer to miner-driven AI reduces hashrate stress and improves the long-term economics of Bitcoin mining. However bridging from mining to AI is capital-intensive, and 2025 filings present that this bridge is already funded. $BTC Gross sales, minor disposals, website conversions. Within the case of Bitcoin, because of this business corrections which will have a constructive impact later should seem like overhangs for now.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $72,322.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
