Crypto prediction markets proceed to be suppressed in Asia, with funding, liquidity, and innovation flowing to Western international locations that select to control.
In a July 8 report, Web3’s analysis agency Tiger Analysis advised that the characterization of prediction markets as unlawful playing is stopping Asian international locations from having fun with the prosperity of blockchain markets. Relatively than halting demand, authorized restrictions solely push customers and enterprise transactions onto worldwide platforms, making them much less safe for customers.
Progress on this area is being fueled by crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, the place transactions are settled on-chain. Tiger Analysis estimates that commerce is price greater than $14 billion every month. Moreover, the trade leaders have a complete worth of $40 billion.
In response to the report, prediction markets promote contracts that pay $1 if an occasion happens and $0 if the occasion doesn’t happen. Predictions are due to this fact real-time estimates of possibilities. Educational analysis has proven that these markets can generate helpful predictions. The Area venture reported by Meta is an instance of the rising curiosity on this know-how past cryptocurrencies.
Asia continues to achieve for the hammer of prohibition
Cryptocurrency prediction markets are largely thought of unlawful playing by authorities on the Asian continent.
In January 2025, the Singapore Gaming Regulatory Authority deemed the Polymarket platform to be an unauthorized playing web site and took censorship motion. Moreover, the usage of the platform was restricted throughout Taiwan after customers had been punished for violating election legal guidelines throughout the 2024 presidential election. Use of the platform was later deemed unlawful in Thailand when web service suppliers had been ordered to censor it, whereas China continues its long-standing ban on all playing and crypto platforms.
Polymarket has now expanded the listing of nations the place the platform is unavailable to incorporate Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Myanmar, North Korea, Singapore, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, and Yemen. Customers in Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand will be unable to position new bets on the Polymarket platform and can solely be allowed to shut positions on Polymarket.
The development of regulators cracking down on cryptocurrency prediction markets continues throughout Asia. As famous by Interexy, an organization specializing in blockchain growth, India will ban actual cash on-line gaming in 2025 and mentioned the ban follows the motion taken towards Probo, an opinion buying and selling platform working within the nation.
The Philippines additionally revoked licenses for offshore playing operations, Hong Kong warned that cryptocurrency prediction markets might be handled as unlawful playing, Indonesia froze greater than 33,000 gambling-related accounts, and Vietnam banned unlawful playing apps from its app shops. Interexy concluded that regulators proceed to use decades-old playing legal guidelines as an alternative of creating guidelines particularly for crypto prediction markets.
Nonetheless, demand stays robust. In response to Chosun Ilbo, the South Korean playing trade often called Opinion has seen weekly buying and selling quantity exceed an astonishing 2 trillion gained since its institution, regardless of strict measures imposed by the nation’s playing laws, underscoring that the laws don’t forestall gamblers from such actions, however solely push them elsewhere.
Western international locations selected regulation and made cash.
For the West, the tide has modified, and the distinction is mirrored within the amount of cash. Relatively than outright banning prediction markets, US authorities have allowed regulated occasion contracts to coexist with crypto exchanges. Blockchain intelligence agency TRM Labs estimates that prediction market buying and selling quantity rose from about $1.2 billion per thirty days in early 2025 to greater than $20 billion in January 2026, involving about 840,000 lively wallets.
Polymarket and Kalshi paved the best way for growth. KALSI features as a delegated contract market beneath the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. This particular standing has allowed companions like CNN and Robinhood to considerably embrace event-based monetary contracts.
Regardless of the regulatory measures, this didn’t cease many specialists from voicing their issues. Former SEC Commissioner Joseph Grundfest warned that extremely uncommon occasion contracts may enable for inside buying and selling, and argued that Polymarket lacks anti-money laundering and buyer consciousness laws required in U.S. monetary markets.
Equally, distressed asset investor Thomas Brazile referred to as prediction markets “sports activities playing wrapped in finance.” He additionally warned that with a lot regulatory uncertainty, it is solely a matter of time earlier than enterprise capitalists begin regretting their investments. U.S. regulators have additionally referred to as for elevated oversight within the wake of insider buying and selling scandals involving event-driven contracts.
At present, authorized debate in the US focuses on whether or not federal commodity legal guidelines take priority over state playing laws. Grundfest mentioned the difficulty may ultimately attain the Supreme Court docket. However in Asia, the aggressive implications are already being felt.
Tiger Analysis mentioned counting on playing bans may result in a lack of capital, liquidity and innovation as different areas have adopted regulated prediction market frameworks. As Western markets enhance their regulatory regimes, Asian international locations are beneath further strain to find out whether or not current playing legal guidelines stay one of the simplest ways to supervise one of many quickest rising industries within the crypto area.
