Bitcoin has entered the late phases of its ongoing bear market, doubtlessly forming a long-term market backside.
Particularly, this month’s latest decline to round $57,000 might put it on par with the $16,000 to $18,000 lows seen on the finish of 2022 this cycle. On-chain knowledge suggests {that a} bottoming course of is underway, however no important affirmation indicators have emerged but.
Why $58,000 might mark the underside of this cycle
Market watcher Seth mentioned there are rising indicators that Bitcoin’s excessive time-frame (HTF) macro backside is already in place. “There are indicators that the HTF macro backside is in. $58,000 is the brand new $18,000,” he wrote on X.
Seth identified that he has pinpointed Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market backside at $16,000. He mentioned he wouldn’t be shocked if Bitcoin reestablished one other low worth cycle.
After bottoming out in 2022, Bitcoin steadily rose. It reached roughly $73,650 in March 2024, and rose to an all-time excessive of $126,200 in October 2025.
Bitcoin rebounds from July lows
Notably, Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1st, its lowest stage this cycle. It then recovered to about $64,600 by July fifth.
As of at this time, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $63,872, up about 4% over the previous week. Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless down 27% for the reason that starting of the yr and stays about 49.4% beneath its all-time excessive in October 2025. This implies that restoration continues to be incomplete.
Glassnode: Backside is forming, however affirmation continues to be missing
In a latest examine, Glassnode acknowledged that Bitcoin stays in “deep worth” territory regardless of buying and selling beneath each the true market common and short-term holder price metrics for practically 5 months.
The analytics agency mentioned long-term holders (LTH) promoting has intensified. Losses now account for 43% of complete realized worth, with realized losses reaching about $280 million per day, the best stage since December 2022.
Glassnode’s chart additionally reveals that over 5.5 million BTC held by long-term buyers are presently in losses. Related ranges have been seen close to the bottoms of main markets throughout previous bear markets earlier than Bitcoin began to get better.
Nonetheless, demand stays weak. The Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see internet outflows, however its every day buying and selling quantity is between $650 million and $950 million, about 80% beneath its October 2025 peak.
On the similar time, the derivatives market turned barely extra optimistic. Though the put/name ratio has fallen to its lowest stage in 2026, choices merchants are nonetheless pricing in draw back threat.
In abstract, Glassnode mentioned that Bitcoin could also be within the ultimate phases of forming a market backside. Nonetheless, he added that the promoting by long-term holders would want to ease for a sustained restoration to be seen.
